According to Insee data, in 2025, 645,000 children were born in France, while the number of deaths amounted to 651,000, resulting in a natural decrease of 6,000 people. This figure has been declining for several years: for example, in 2020, the growth was +66,300, and in 2024, it was +17,600.
This intersection of birth and death rates, as experts note, is a rare phenomenon. Besides the two world wars, similar situations have been recorded only three times: in 1907, 1911, and 1929, but in those cases, the decline was temporary.
Sylvie Le Minez, head of the demographic and social research department at Insee, explained that this trend may persist for the coming years and even decades. Since the early 2010s, mortality has been increasing and is likely to continue rising until 2040-2050, as the generation born during the baby boom ages.
In 2025, the number of deaths in France increased by 1.5% compared to the previous year. The report also indicates that this growth is due not only to the aging population but also to external factors such as a severe winter flu epidemic in January and hot summer months.
It is projected that by the end of the 2040s, the annual number of deaths could approach 800,000.
Against the backdrop of increasing mortality, birth rates in France continue to decline. Since 2010, when 832,394 children were born in the country, this figure has been steadily decreasing, and in recent years, the pace of decline has accelerated.
The total fertility rate (TFR) in 2025 was 1.56 children per woman, one of the lowest figures in a long time. Insee notes that similar values were observed only during World War I.
The National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined) also emphasizes that the desire to have children has significantly decreased among young people under 30: over the past 20 years, the average desired number of children has decreased by 0.6. Additionally, the number of people wishing to have zero or one child has begun to exceed the number of those planning three or more.
Researchers link this to economic instability and new sources of anxiety, including climate change and uncertainty about the future.
Despite the negative natural growth, the overall population of France continues to grow due to migration. Sylvie Le Minez noted that while natural growth was previously the main factor in population increase, migration balance has now become decisive.
In 2020, the migration balance was 140,000, and by 2025, it increased to 176,000 people, allowing the population to grow by 0.25%, despite falling birth rates and rising mortality.
The expert also emphasizes that young people are the most common migrants to France, and migration remains an important factor supporting the economy and demographic situation in the country.
