The conducted analysis shows that behind the external charm of "renewable" modernization lies a potential "Trojan horse" - a partnership that benefits only certain lobbying groups and contradicts national interests.
Financial Instability
ROX Group is facing serious financial difficulties. Open sources of information indicate that the company's debt level exceeds its equity by more than 7 times, and in some cases, even up to 11 times. Such a level of debt burden is a serious alarming signal for international investors, indicating a high probability of default and a low ability to meet financial obligations without external support. The company already has restructured and overdue bond payments, which is a clear sign of an internal liquidity crisis.
In such conditions, ROX Group will not be able to attract project financing from major banks or international funds without the provision of extraterritorial guarantees by Kyrgyzstan. This means that the state, already burdened with debts in the energy sector, will be forced to assume the risks of a private investor. Instead of attracting private investments, the country is acquiring a new debt obligation under the pretext of "green" development. A vivid example is the recent breakdown of the solar stations under construction on Issyk-Kul, which some sources link directly to the Vietnamese investor.
Legal Risks
The situation is further complicated by the legal background of ROX Group. The only registered company in the field of solar energy - the Thuan Nam 19 project (60 MW) in Vietnam - is currently under investigation. Reports from Vietnamese media dated April 10, 2025, indicate that local authorities have opened a criminal case regarding corruption and bribery in the implementation of this project.
For the Ministry of Energy of the KR, this creates a double risk. Firstly, cooperation with a company under anti-corruption investigation undermines trust in the investor selection process and may be perceived as a manifestation of lobbying. Secondly, if the investigation leads to a guilty verdict, the assets of ROX Group may be blocked, limiting its participation in international projects. Kyrgyzstan risks becoming embroiled in lengthy legal disputes that could paralyze the project's implementation and jeopardize state guarantees.
Technical Obstacles
The 1900 MW solar power project does not align with the current state of Kyrgyzstan's energy system. The country's network, oriented towards hydropower generation, is characterized as "weak," outdated, and unprepared for the integration of large volumes of variable generation. The implementation of such a large amount of "intermittent" solar energy without significant investments in battery energy storage systems (BESS) and substation upgrades could lead to cascading failures and accidents.
ROX Group lacks experience in executing projects of such scale and complexity. The only similar station at 60 MW cannot serve as a reliable precedent. Moreover, considering that the Ministry of Energy has already made mistakes in documentation during tenders, hopes for effective oversight of the Vietnamese contractor's work appear naive. The risks of poor execution, lowering of standards, and use of cheap equipment are particularly high, given the company's financial situation.
Alternative Solutions
Against the backdrop of the risks associated with the ROX Group project, an alternative stands out - small modular reactors (SMRs). Unlike solar power plants, which depend on weather conditions and time of day, SMRs provide stable baseload power at any time and integrate well into existing infrastructure. Their lifespan exceeds 60 years, while solar panels last 20-25 years. SMR projects are typically implemented by state corporations with high credit ratings, ensuring successful completion and reducing risks for the country.
The choice of ROX Group ignores the main problem of Kyrgyzstan - the lack of energy during the winter period and the off-season when solar generation is minimal. The 1900 MW solar power plant will not solve this issue, but will only create an illusion of progress. In contrast, SMRs could become the foundation for energy independence, providing stable electricity production during peak demand periods.
Impact on the Image of "Green" Initiatives
The failure of the project with ROX Group will damage not only the budget but also the entire "green" agenda of Kyrgyzstan. International partners supporting the development of renewable energy sources may reconsider their participation, seeing the country as an unreliable partner. Society may also begin to view any "green" initiatives as potential sources of corruption and inefficiency.
It is particularly dangerous that this project is being promoted under the auspices of the Ministry of Energy, whose reputation has already been tarnished by a number of controversial decisions. The choice of ROX Group appears not as a result of serious technical and economic analysis, but as a consequence of lobbying influence, possibly from circles associated with Vietnamese business.
The winter of 2025-2026 will be a decisive moment. If the project with ROX Group is not reconsidered, Kyrgyzstan risks being left without a new source of generation, but with new debts, legal disputes, and a damaged reputation. Instead of achieving energy independence, the country may find itself dependent on an unscrupulous investor, facing the threat of a systemic crisis.
