According to the Financial Times, after February 5, not only will the limits on the number of nuclear warheads cease to apply, but also the control mechanisms, including mutual inspections and regular data exchanges. This will leave only empty promises without legal force between the two largest nuclear powers.
James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment, stated that the world may enter a new era of arms racing. He noted that the chances of reaching a new arms control agreement in the near future are extremely low.
Rose Gottemoeller, who served as the chief U.S. negotiator for New START, pointed out that Vladimir Putin's initiative for voluntary compliance with the treaty's terms cannot replace a full-fledged legally binding mechanism. She also emphasized that Russia could significantly increase the number of warheads on existing delivery systems much faster, which she believes puts the U.S. at a disadvantage.
Experts warn that the expiration of New START does not necessarily lead to an immediate increase in nuclear arsenals.
However, the absence of legal constraints and transparency significantly increases the risks of strategic miscalculations and undermines global efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The New START Treaty was signed in 2010, initially for a period of ten years, and was extended until February 5, 2026. It established a limit on the number of deployed nuclear warheads—1,550 units—and provided for mechanisms for mutual inspections and notifications. After the treaty expires, all these mechanisms will cease to be in effect.
