In light of these events, experts have begun to express their opinions on what is happening, offering various views—from calls for silence from the involved parties to the belief that the state will not be able to stop and will be forced to see the case through to the end.
24.kg has gathered the opinions of specialists about what concerns them in this situation, why such harsh comments are being made, and whether this is a genuine fight against corruption or a new stage in the struggle for influence.
Nurbek Toktakunov: It’s better to exercise the right to remain silent
Photo from personal archive. Nurbek Toktakunov
Nurbek Toktakunov, lawyer:
— Tai-Muras Tashiev should exercise his right to remain silent, both before the investigation and before the public, after the STS announced its accusations and the Ministry of Internal Affairs conducted the questioning. All his words could be used against his father. Even if his justifications are valid, he risks creating additional evidence against his parent, who holds an important position in the government and manages the special services and is involved in state procurement.
Moreover, his attempts to justify himself by comparing the volume of his purchases with the total production volume at the state oil refinery raise questions. Where did he get such data if it is not publicly available? It is likely that it came to him through connections with the management of the enterprise, which serves as evidence of corrupt ties.
If the state has already made information about such a clan public, it will have to follow through to the end, as all possible exits are already closed.
Zainidin Kurmanov: Corruption as a mechanism of governance
Zainidin Kurmanov, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor:
— It’s time to realize that this cannot continue. The tax service has uncovered yet another terrible scheme related to "Kyrgyzneftegaz." In the 90s, this enterprise promised us 300 years of oil independence, but discussions about it gradually faded away. In reality, the plant was operating and extracting oil, but we were unaware of it.
The phenomenon of elite greed is not just a matter of "bad people," but a deep systemic problem. Corruption becomes not an exception, but a parallel mechanism of governance. In traditional cultures, loyalty to one’s clan is more important than loyalty to the state. An official sees their position as an opportunity to help "their own." During transitional periods, "legal vacuums" arise where personal agreements prove to be more reliable than the law.
A society with a low political culture does not perceive power as an institution of service. It is believed here that if a "boss" is not wealthy, it is a sign of weakness, not honesty. Politicians try to outdo each other in wealth amid the cheers of a poor crowd. How can we praise thieves?
The fight against corruption requires a comprehensive approach, not just one "high-profile arrest." The following are necessary:
Exclusion of the human factor through digitalization.
Economic freedom and reduction of regulation.
Independence of the courts and inevitability of punishment.
Transparency of state procurement and control by citizens.
Decent wages for civil servants.
Complete eradication of corruption is unlikely, but a significant reduction in its level is possible. Examples from Japan, Singapore, and Georgia show that with strong political will, the situation can be changed within a decade. However, without public demand, any reforms may turn out to be mere imitations of a struggle. People are tired of seeing elites and their children "thoughtlessly indulge" in privatized positions.
Musurkul Kabylbekov: The STS statement marks the end of the "clandestine" phase
Musurkul Kabylbekov, political scientist:
— The very fact that the issue has been raised, and through a state institution—the Tax Service—speaks volumes. It indicates a struggle, that a kind of Rubicon has been crossed between the parties. The struggle has entered a stage where there is no turning back for either side.
If this were a private investigation, it could have been hushed up. But the statement has been made by the STS—a structure that has not previously dealt with such issues. We see how a state institution is effectively conducting an investigation and voicing such facts. The reaction from other supervisory bodies, including the Prosecutor General's Office, is evident—criminal proceedings have already been initiated.
If the facts presented by the STS are confirmed—and they are likely to be confirmed, otherwise the service would lose face—this means that everything happening has been coordinated at the highest level. Information does not appear without appropriate decisions. This is already a systemic struggle; it is not just about political rivalry, but also about an attempt to portray Kamchybek Tashiev as a corrupt individual, to initiate criminal proceedings against him, and effectively remove him from politics.
All the schemes currently being discussed are somehow related to his relatives—this was known before as well. The initiation of criminal proceedings will likely also involve his son, as having said "A," one must also say "B." A side effect of all this may be that financial flows that previously went into private pockets will start flowing into the state. At least for a while, until a final decision is made regarding the company.
From a political standpoint, this means that the struggle has begun in earnest, and it will be extremely difficult for Kamchybek Tashiev to cope with it. He has long held back, which was justified until a key asset for him was touched. Even in situations involving his entourage and accusations of pressure on businesses, he did not react, citing the inappropriate time for conflict.
However, after pro-government structures and bloggers began openly accusing the former head of the State National Security Committee of corruption and multibillion-dollar embezzlement, he found himself in a situation where he could no longer remain silent.
If he returned to the country without loud statements, it indicates his intention to fight. The question is what this will lead to: a compromise, the search for "scapegoats," or further escalation.
Given Kamchybek Tashiev's character, his return was expected. Otherwise, he would have completely lost his electorate and dropped out of the political life of Kyrgyzstan. The fact of his return confirms his desire to defend his positions and those of his close ones. This is in his habits.
It is likely that the most interesting events are yet to come. His entourage may have already developed their strategy. The return of the former chairman of the State National Security Committee is not a spontaneous decision, but a calculated step. He has serious obligations to supporters, relatives, and people under investigation. In such a situation, remaining outside the country would mean effectively erasing himself from political life—both in the eyes of society and his supporters.
Tologon Keldybaev: Legality will always prevail
Tologon Keldybaev, political scientist:
— Around high-ranking officials, there are always those who commit crimes for personal gain. Regardless of who it is—Tashiev or someone else—his entourage often places their own interests above all else. Tashiev's entourage may have been involved in corruption, abuse of office, and lawlessness.
While Kamchybek Tashiev held the positions of head of the State National Security Committee and deputy prime minister, effectively being the second person after the president, it was impossible to hold his entourage accountable. Even if someone saw or heard about violations, they preferred to turn a blind eye. After his departure, the tension eased, and entrepreneurs began to openly state that they had suffered from such actions. Legality may not act temporarily, but sooner or later it comes into force. I am convinced that the actions of the Tashievs will receive a legal assessment and will be thoroughly investigated.
Tashiev did a lot of good, but at the same time made serious mistakes.
He carried out significant work in the fight against organized crime and corruption, which helped limit corrupt schemes in the social sphere and law enforcement agencies. However, his main problem became the possession of enormous, practically unlimited power.
