With the departure of Kamchybek Tashiev and the end of the duumvirate, the political system of Kyrgyzstan has entered a new phase of restructuring. Against the backdrop of significant personnel changes and preparations for the presidential elections in 2027, a new political configuration is forming.
Tamerlan Ibraimov, head of the Center for Political and Legal Studies, reflects on the upcoming challenges for the authorities and elites.
“Quiet Fronde”
“If one friend leaves, then behind my back there are more than 7 million friends,” said President Sadyr Japarov after the collapse of the duumvirate.It is important to note that the duumvirate as a form of governance is an exception, not the norm. The longevity of this phenomenon in the country makes it an interesting subject for analysis within the Eurasian region.
This phenomenon can be explained by Sadyr Japarov's high confidence in his abilities, his personal qualities, and the fact that he is not afraid of strong personalities around him, including his long-time ally Kamchybek Tashiev, who played a key role in the transfer of power in 2020 and in subsequent years.
Paradoxically, during the duumvirate, despite the apparent duality of power, political pluralism significantly decreased, while its collapse may lead to the opposite situation.
This creates opportunities for the president; however, the complication of the system will require him to adopt diverse management approaches.
A large-scale purge in the state bodies of Kyrgyzstan evokes associations with the personnel purges in Turkey related to the "Hizmet" movement. The political fate of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who utilized all resources of the state apparatus, and his former ally Fethullah Gülen, who became a powerful opponent, is well known.
Although Kyrgyzstan has its unique political and military traditions, the scale of the purges can be considered comparable. The fate of local political players remains uncertain for now.
It is evident that a significant part of the political elite has found itself sidelined, and some of them will likely transition into a “quiet fronde,” waiting for their chance. Whether this fronde remains quiet or manifests itself depends on Sadyr Japarov's political abilities in forming a stable political field and a number of other factors.
Tasks and Achievements
Among the president's achievements are: the modernization of the tax and customs systems, successful resolution of border disputes with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, significant measures against organized crime, as well as dynamic economic growth and the launch of strategic projects capable of elevating Kyrgyzstan to a new level.In recent years, the external economic situation has been favorable for the country, aided by unprecedented growth in gold prices and an increase in foreign economic activity. However, these factors are not dependent on Kyrgyzstan, and it is essential to be prepared for their change.
The president's economic policy is based on a Keynesian approach with high state investments and demand stimulation, which has yielded positive results. Nevertheless, the constant increase in the role of the state in the economy may lead to negative consequences in the future, and the policy must remain flexible.
While GDP growth is important, it is often not a decisive factor for citizens. People are more concerned about their personal financial situation and the sense of fairness in government policy.
The country may demonstrate rapid economic growth; however, political elites and certain social groups may remain dissatisfied, which reflects the overall mood of society.
Tamerlan Ibraimov
For example, the process of “kusturization” elicited mixed reactions: some supported it, seeing it as necessary to punish corrupt businessmen, while others, mainly large owners and businessmen, viewed it with concern. Niccolò Machiavelli noted in "The Prince": “People are more likely to forgive the death of a father than the loss of property.”
The legality and justification of punitive measures are perceived by society with extreme sensitivity, and feelings of justice and legal justification in government policy are crucial for the population.
New Political Elite
The political elite and their views, ideas, and behaviors of individual personalities also significantly influence the country's politics. Corruption, incompetence, or rudeness from even a few representatives of the elite can undermine citizens' trust and the legitimacy of power more than a GDP decline.Today's purges in the upper echelons of power are leading to the formation of a new generation of political elite. How different they will be in views and behavior will be revealed over time. It is up to Sadyr Japarov and his team, perceived by society as “the closest friends of the president,” to shape the new political field. It can either create new connections and management methods or revert to old mistakes, leading to the activation of the “quiet fronde.”
Moreover, there are periods when tension in the political system increases, especially during elections. The next presidential elections will take place in 2027. Sociological studies show high popularity for Sadyr Japarov, confirming his words about “more than 7 million friends,” making him a clear favorite. However, the opposition is unlikely to accept this. It is known that in politics, past achievements have relative significance, and one must constantly reaffirm their leadership position with new successes.
It is also important to understand that if the president wins the next elections, his second term will be no less challenging, and perhaps even more so, with political challenges. The opposition, including the “quiet fronde,” which possesses significant resources, may attempt to exploit the “lame duck” factor, and this could happen even before the end of the second term.
Therefore, an important element in the political system should be the creation of a new political field with new faces and a stable governance system perceived by society as fair and legitimate.
Within the established political system, the keys to all doors are in the hands of the president. One can only hope that he realizes the full spectrum of challenges and opportunities to choose the right direction for future movement.
