In 2025, Kyrgyzstan's economy demonstrated an impressive growth rate of 11.1%, placing the country among the leaders in this indicator worldwide. This was reported by the chairman of the National Bank, Melis Turgunbaev, while analyzing the factors contributing to accelerated growth amid global instability.
Turgunbaev noted that in previous years, the economy also showed strong growth rates: in 2023, the growth was 9%, and in 2024, according to updated data from the National Statistical Committee, it was 11.5%.
The head of the National Bank emphasized that Kyrgyzstan is classified as a small open economy, which is susceptible to the influences of external trade and international financial flows. Any changes in global markets, such as rising prices for oil or food, as well as disruptions in logistics, immediately affect inflation, the exchange rate of the national currency, and the pace of economic growth.
"Small economies are particularly vulnerable to external shocks. For example, if fuel or grain prices rise in international markets, this is immediately reflected in the domestic market," noted Melis Turgunbaev.
According to him, Kyrgyzstan is primarily a price taker, importing a lot of fuel, wheat, and other vital goods, which limits the country's ability to influence their prices. A small domestic market also means less resilience compared to larger economies.
Another reason for vulnerability is the high concentration of external trade, as Turgunbaev pointed out. Kyrgyzstan's main trading partners are Russia, Kazakhstan, and China, which account for about half of its exports and nearly two-thirds of its imports.
Nevertheless, global instability opens up new opportunities. As Melis Turgunbaev indicated, changes in trade routes and logistics caused by sanctions against Russia have facilitated the redistribution of business flows in the region. This has spurred the development of logistics and warehousing infrastructure, transit operations, and the financial sector in Kyrgyzstan, which, in turn, has become one of the factors for rapid growth.
The head of the National Bank highlighted three key aspects that help small open economies cope with external shocks.
The first direction is economic diversification. The development of processing, industry, agriculture, and tourism, as well as increasing markets for sales and energy sources within the National Development Strategy until 2030, reduces dependence on external factors.
The second direction is related to macroeconomic discipline. As of the end of November 2025, the ratio of public debt to GDP was 43.49%, which creates opportunities for maneuvering. It is important to effectively utilize this reserve—building up reserves, controlling the budget deficit, and ensuring price stability.
The third direction is the quality of institutions. Melis Turgunbaev noted that the long-term sustainability of the economy depends on effective governance, transparent business rules, a stable banking system, protection of property rights, and the independence of regulators, which fosters increased trust and reduces social risks during crises.
