Kaktus.media reached out to experts to find out how the situation with prices will change and what will influence it.
New Challenges for Consumers
According to estimates from the Ministry of Finance of Kyrgyzstan, inflation will rise from 5.5% in 2025 to 6.5% in 2026. It is expected that price growth will remain within single digits unless unexpected events occur.The National Bank, in its latest report, did not provide specific figures for inflation for the next year but commented that both direct and indirect inflationary effects from current factors will persist in 2026.
“Additionally, inflation is expected to be driven by increased domestic demand, fiscal policy, as well as fluctuations in global prices for food products and petroleum products,” noted the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic.
“We forecast that inflation will enter the target range by 2028. A decrease in domestic demand should slow down price growth; however, increases in utility tariffs and excise taxes will create additional pressure,” added the Eurasian Development Bank.
Factors Contributing to Inflation
According to the World Bank, inflation in 2025 could reach 9%, and in 2026 this figure may rise to 11%. This is the highest forecast among all estimates for the next 12 months. Economists attribute this to several factors.“Increases in wages, rising tariffs for electricity and heating, as well as the absence of significant shocks in global food and energy markets will contribute to this growth,” explained Bakyt Dubashov, a senior economist at the World Bank.
Goods That Will Become More Expensive
Russia remains Kyrgyzstan's main trading partner, and price changes in that country will directly affect the situation in Kyrgyzstan. Goods from Russia are expected to become more expensive, particularly due to the increase in the VAT rate in Russia from 20% to 22%, which will take effect on January 1, 2026, as well as the lowering of the revenue threshold for small businesses that are now required to pay this tax.Which specific goods will see the largest price increases? Experts predict that the main price increases will affect the following categories of products:
- Coffee and confectionery (expected increase of 18-22%).
- Meat and dairy products will increase in price by 12-15% due to rising fuel and feed costs, which will not be offset by the preferential VAT.
- Some beverages will also become more expensive due to rising packaging and logistics costs.
- Dairy products will rise in price due to increased costs for feed and energy.
Among the positive news, it is worth noting the expected decrease in global prices for vegetable oil. Major buyers such as India, Turkey, Iran, and China are reducing purchases as they have sufficient stocks. This is due to increased supply: Russia is harvesting a good sunflower crop and remains the largest exporter.
Analysis of futures quotes shows that the market may expect further declines: according to Ekaterina Mikhaleva, director of the Strategy Partners practice, a decrease of 5% is expected by the summer of 2026. Dmitry Krasnov, managing director of "Rexoft Consulting," also predicts a price drop of 5-10% in the next six months.
Rising Prices for Electronics
Since mid-2025, there has been an increase in prices for SSD drives and RAM for PCs. The reason for this growth is that memory manufacturers have shifted their capacities to production for data centers, which are more profitable.This will affect nearly all segments of electronics, including:
- RAM for PCs and laptops;
- SSD drives;
- Laptops and smartphones - memory chips and drives are key components affecting the cost of devices.
Fuel: Forecasts and Expectations
According to the latest report from the World Bank, "Commodity Market Outlook," a decline in global commodity prices is expected in 2026 to a record low level over the past six years, marking a decrease in prices for the fourth consecutive year.“A decrease in oil prices is forecasted for 2026-2027 compared to the average values of the last three years, driven by increased supply and the development of alternative energy. The average annual price for Brent is expected to be around $66 per barrel,” added Evgeny Vinokurov, chief economist of the Eurasian Development Bank.
However, 2025 showed that not everything depends on global prices. Supply issues can also lead to price increases. According to Maxim Dyachenko, managing partner of the trader "Proleum," the key factor for rising fuel prices in Russia this summer was unplanned shutdowns of refineries, which are unpredictable. As a result, in Kyrgyzstan, the price of AI-92 gasoline increased by 17.5%, AI-95 by 12%, and diesel fuel by 11.5%.
In 2026, experts predict a possible continuation of the trend of rising gasoline prices in Russia, especially for AI-95, which is in highest demand. Price dynamics may be uneven, as sanctions and internal economic problems create a complex situation with high costs and limited resources.
