However, the level of inflation in most Central Asian countries remains high. The main factors contributing to this are the rise in tariffs and the increase in food prices on global markets. Kyrgyzstan will not be an exception; prices are expected to rise at a rate comparable to GDP growth.
Gradual Strengthening of the Region
According to EDB Chief Economist Yevgeny Vinokurov, the global economy in recent years resembles a chess game, where conditions change after each move, increasing the level of uncertainty and negatively impacting trade and investment.“Global trade no longer serves as a growth engine. We also see a decline in cross-border investments, which have long outpaced overall economic growth. Major economies are now focusing on developing domestic production,” says Vinokurov.
“Central Asia is a significant and strategically important economic region that attracts the attention and interest of the entire world,” he added.The EDB notes that the global economy will continue to grow, but the pace will be moderate as developing countries with large markets maintain economic activity. By 2025, the GDP of the EDB region is expected to grow by 1.9%, marking a return to equilibrium indicators after two years of record growth.
The rate of increase in consumer prices remains high, and it is expected that by 2025 they will exceed target indicators. This is linked to the recent increase in electricity tariffs and the rise in food prices on international markets.
Government measures to stabilize prices for essential goods will help keep inflation at a controlled level, although high rates of consumer lending at the beginning of 2026 will also support domestic trade.
Investments allocated under government programs will impact the construction sector and manufacturing industries.
In 2027-2028, GDP growth rates are expected to be around 7.5%. The economy of Kyrgyzstan will gradually return to balanced growth rates as domestic demand begins to cool.
Measures to Curb Inflation
By the end of 2026, the inflation rate in Kyrgyzstan is projected to be at 8.3%. Although this is lower than the current forecast of 9.1%, these price growth rates cannot be considered moderate.“Economic growth increases consumer demand, which in turn leads to rising prices. The rise in global food prices also negatively affects inflation,” noted Aigul Berdigulova. She added that the National Bank plans to raise interest rates to stabilize the situation.
As for the exchange rate of the som, experts believe it will fluctuate within the range of 87-90 soms per dollar. On one hand, increased imports will raise demand for foreign currency, which may lead to a weakening of the exchange rate. On the other hand, the influx of currency in the form of remittances will help stabilize the situation.
“We do not expect sharp changes in the dynamics of the som exchange rate in the coming years,” summarized Berdigulova.
Despite the positive forecast for Kyrgyzstan's economy, risks remain. A stronger slowdown in the global economy than expected could negatively impact the country's foreign economic activity. Additionally, high rates of lending could create conditions for persistently high inflation, and capital outflows from emerging markets could weaken the som, leading to the need for a tighter monetary policy.
