Climatologists have created a climate model to analyze the weather conditions of "The Lord of the Rings." The results showed that precipitation, the distribution of forests, and deserts correspond to real geographical patterns. In the Misty Mountains, rain is generated by moist westerly winds, while Mordor is characterized as a dry subtropical region similar to the Sahara.
The study covers both Middle-earth from Tolkien's works and Westeros from George Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire," which inspired the series "Game of Thrones." Middle-earth proved to be simpler to model, as Tolkien envisioned it as a mythical version of Earth in ancient times. The scientists applied a standard Earth model, overlaying maps and descriptions from the books, which yielded positive results.
The western slopes of the Misty Mountains experience the highest amount of precipitation. Westerly winds bring moist air that rises and cools, resulting in rain or snow. On the eastern side, in contrast, moisture hardly reaches.
According to the model's results, vast forests should cover most of Middle-earth, which aligns with Tolkien's assertions that squirrels could travel from the Shire to Dunland without touching the ground. At the same time, Mordor modeled as a dry subtropical region resembling the Sahara desert.
The situation with Westeros turned out to be more complex. In Martin's works, winter and summer are irregular and can last for generations. For a planet with a stable orbit, like Earth, this is impossible. The scientists suggested that it might orbit a binary star or have a variable axial tilt. If the axis is constantly changing, one hemisphere could be in eternal summer while the other is in eternal winter. However, such a situation excludes the normal change of seasons as described in "A Song of Ice and Fire." To achieve such an effect, the planet would need to flip every few years. The reasons for such behavior remain unknown.
The results of the study were published in the journal Fafnir — Nordic Journal of Science Fiction and Fantasy Research.
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