It is expected that a sudden stratospheric warming will occur in mid-February 2026, which may trigger a new collapse of the polar vortex. This phenomenon, in turn, will lead to the influx of cold Arctic air into regions of North America and Europe.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the global level of extreme cold has been decreasing since 1950, while winter temperatures continue to rise, as noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, this does not rule out the possibility of extreme weather conditions or localized cold waves.
As a result of the weakening and deformation of the polar vortex, there has been an increase in the waviness of the polar jet stream, which has contributed to significant intrusions of icy air into the mid-latitudes. This has led to sharp cooling in North America, Europe, and Asia, creating conditions for destructive winter storms in January.
The polar vortex is a powerful flow of cold air and strong winds that typically rotates around the North Pole. When it weakens, Arctic air begins to move southward, while warm air penetrates into the Arctic.
Some meteorological forecasts indicate the possibility of significant weakening of the polar vortex in early February due to a major sudden stratospheric warming over the Arctic. This could create additional risks of cold Arctic air intruding into North America and Northern Europe by the end of February.
