Since 2014, Turkey has seen a steady decline in birth rates, leading to the onset of what is referred to as a demographic winter. Forecasts from the Statistical Institute (TurkStat) indicate an expected decrease in the number of children of primary school age by approximately 900,000 over the next five years.
These changes are already affecting higher education institutions. In 2025, private universities were able to fill only 75.8% of their study places, the lowest figure in the last five years.
Some institutions were unable to recruit even half of the planned students.
The most affected by these difficulties are private universities, which derive up to 80% of their budget from tuition fees.
Education analysts warn that over the next decade, some universities may close, merge with other institutions, or significantly alter their programs.
The issue of "zombie universities," which have lost the majority of their students, has previously been observed in Japan and South Korea.
Among the factors contributing to the decline in the number of applicants are not only the demographic downturn but also a decrease in job placement guarantees after graduation, a growing interest in short-term vocational programs and online education, as well as the youth's desire to enter the labor market more quickly.
Experts emphasize that higher education in Turkey is on the brink of structural changes, and private universities will need to adapt to the new conditions first and foremost.
The country's authorities are considering the possibility of compensating for the decrease in local students by attracting foreign applicants.
