According to open data from the Ministry of Energy and other relevant agencies, statistics can be restored as of April 1 for the period from 2006 to 2013, as well as separate data for 2014 and 2015.
Photo from the internet
In 2013, energy specialists presented an overview of the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station, which reflected the volumes of water on April 1 for the specified years.
According to this information:
- 2006 — 14.13 billion cubic meters;
- 2007 — 13.76 billion cubic meters;
- 2008 — 6.56 billion cubic meters;
- 2009 — 6.42 billion cubic meters;
- 2010 — 11.82 billion cubic meters;
- 2011 — 15.4 billion cubic meters;
- 2012 — 14.24 billion cubic meters;
- 2013 — 13.77 billion cubic meters.
Thus, the minimum value for the specified period was recorded on April 1, 2009 — 6.42 billion cubic meters, coinciding with the time of a prolonged energy crisis and strict electricity conservation.
The highest level was observed on April 1, 2011 — 15.4 billion cubic meters, resulting from a snowy winter and good water inflow, allowing for the avoidance of serious problems in the autumn-winter period.
It is worth noting that all the data provided take into account the "dead storage" level, which is about 5.5 billion cubic meters. In crisis years (2008-2009), the actual maneuverable reserve above this level did not exceed 1-1.1 billion cubic meters (6.56 and 6.42 billion against 5.5 billion).
In more favorable years (2011-2013), the reserve above the "dead storage" could reach 9-10 billion cubic meters.
These were just forecasts, but they indicate that during that period, water reserves were higher than in 2008-2009, but lower than in the record years of 2011-2012.
In 2015, according to the State Agency for Regulation of the Fuel and Energy Complex, the volume of water on April 1 was 6.4 billion cubic meters.
This figure nearly coincides with the anti-record of 2009 (6.42 billion) and is significantly lower than the average long-term expectations (about 12 billion cubic meters on the same date, according to energy specialists).
Data on 6.4 billion cubic meters on April 1, 2015, is now often used by officials for comparison with the current situation in the context of the past energy crisis.
According to current hydraulic parameters, the "dead storage" for the Toktogul Reservoir is approximately 5.5 billion cubic meters. Upon reaching this level:
- the water level becomes too low for the normal operation of the HPP units;
- further discharge may lead to equipment damage and threatens the safety of the dam;
- the hydrosystem loses the ability to generate electricity and switches to a mode of strict restrictions.
Thus, any values on April 1 close to 6-6.5 billion cubic meters represent a risk zone: in the event of unfavorable inflow by the beginning of the autumn-winter season, one could approach the "dead storage" level.
In recent years, the water level in the Toktogul Reservoir has shown significant fluctuations: in 2020, reserves remained at 12-14 billion cubic meters, while in 2021 they dropped to about 8.7-9 billion cubic meters. In 2022-2023, the reservoir was maintained at an average level of about 9-10 billion cubic meters.
The most critical year was 2024, when the volume of water dropped to about 6.5 billion cubic meters, which is close to the "dead storage" level.
Last year, the situation began to improve: reserves increased to about 8.4-8.7 billion cubic meters at the beginning of April.
It should be noted that starting from May 15, 2025, data on the volumes of accumulated water in the Toktogul Reservoir ceased to be publicly available and are no longer published on the website of the Electric Stations JSC.
Toktogul Reservoir
Is an important part of the Naryn cascade, commissioned in 1975 and playing a strategic role in the energy security of Kyrgyzstan. Over half a century of observations, the water level in the reservoir has reached critically low values several times, especially in 2008 and 2015, leading to a deficit in electricity generation and restrictions on its use.
