After the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the world witnessed an escalation of the crisis in the region.
In an interview with 24.kg, orientalist and NESTCentre specialist Ruslan Suleymanov explains why the goals articulated by Trump and Netanyahu are vague, and the consequences of the military operation affect not only the countries of the Middle East.
— What do you consider to be the real goals of the US and Israel's military operation in Iran?
— Determining the true objectives of the military operation in Iran is a serious task. Statements from Trump and his team change daily. But it is clear that Israel is more interested in regime change than the US. Trump spoke about creating conditions for regime change, which implies but does not guarantee its overthrow.
Trump likely expected a quicker and more successful operation and did not think that Iranian missiles would be aimed at Dubai and Bahrain, territories whose security Washington guaranteed.
Ruslan Suleymanov
He clearly did not anticipate such resistance from Tehran, especially after Khamenei's death. Now, the main task for Trump and Netanyahu is to find an acceptable way out of the situation and define what can be considered a victory. Trump will have to announce his triumph, but what exactly will be presented as an achievement is an open question.
— Can airstrikes be considered sufficient for regime change in Iran?
— I believe it became clear during the 12-day war that airstrikes are insufficient for regime change. Even after the assassination of the Supreme Leader, the regime did not collapse; on the contrary, it became more cohesive.
Discussion Topic
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Within Iran, there are different political factions — conservatives and reformers — but now they are united by a single goal: survival. The issue of security is also relevant for ordinary Iranians who seek change but prioritize safety.
— How feasible are Trump's plans to involve Iranian Kurds in the conflict?
— This is a very risky decision. The Kurdish issue affects not only Iran but also neighboring countries. Attempts to activate the Kurdish movement in Iran could have negative consequences for Turkey and Syria, which they do not want.
There is no organized resistance movement among the Kurds in Iran — their leaders are either killed, imprisoned, or in exile.
Therefore, it is doubtful from which forces Trump and Netanyahu intend to form a Kurdish militia and whether they can reach Tehran to overthrow the regime.
— How long can the conflict last, and what can Trump consider a victory?
— The duration depends on the ultimate goal that Trump sets and what he is willing to present as a victory. The 12-day war conducted by Israel and the US ended with strikes on nuclear facilities, after which Trump was able to declare himself a victor. The assassination of Khamenei could have been an achievement, but for Trump, that is not enough.
— How does the pressure from Arab monarchies affect the operations?
— Arab countries are indeed putting pressure on Washington. Leaks from Arab sources confirm this. The UAE, for example, does not want drones and missiles flying over their territory.
Discussion Topic
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They are suffering material and reputational losses. This pressure undoubtedly influences Trump's and his team's decisions, accelerating their search for an exit from the operation.
— Which countries have suffered the most from the conflict, and who benefits from it?
— The main beneficiary of the war is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose ratings are rising amid military actions.
For Trump, the war is backfiring: countries he made multi-billion dollar contracts with and guaranteed their security are under attack.
Ruslan Suleymanov
As for Russia, it finds itself in an awkward position. Moscow cannot influence either Washington or Tel Aviv and has no military obligations to Tehran. This creates an uncomfortable situation, and Russia can only watch as its strategic partner comes under attack.
Discussion Topic
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The only thing Putin can do is send a telegram to the Iranian president expressing condolences over the assassination of the Supreme Leader, without mentioning either the US or Israel.
Moreover, this creates economic losses: a freeze or even termination of joint projects with Iran, such as the North-South transport corridor and the construction of a nuclear power plant, is possible.
Currently, all of this is in question. In the short term, Russia may benefit, for example, from diverting American attention from the war in Ukraine and rising oil prices. But in the long term, this will be a serious reputational blow and economic losses.
Ruslan Suleymanov
For China, this is also a serious challenge, as it is the main buyer of Iranian oil and is now facing disruptions and high prices. Reports suggest that China is trying to act as a mediator, seeking a ceasefire, but like Russia, it has no military obligations to Iran.
The only thing it can do is use diplomacy. However, unlike Russia, China has never positioned itself as a defender of the Global South and has not emphasized the formation of a new world order. Therefore, the losses for China are not as significant as for Russia. I find it hard to see how Russia can confidently discuss a new center of power known as the Global South, given that in practice, this Global South does not exist.
— Is there a connection between the conflict in Iran and the war in Ukraine?
— There is no direct connection, but the situation in Iran diverts resources and attention from Ukraine. This gives Moscow the opportunity to continue its actions and promote its agenda. The Kremlin is not even interested in a ceasefire.
Discussion Topic
Escalation in the Middle East: what Central Asia should prepare for
— How are Central Asian countries reacting to the conflict?
— No one wants to be on the losing side. In the early days of the war, it was unclear how Iran would behave. Given the close relationships of Presidents Tokayev and Mirziyoyev with Trump, they did not want to upset him.
The invitation of Astana and Tashkent to the Council of Peace and numerous joint projects worth billions of dollars predetermined the choice in favor of whoever is considered stronger in Central Asia.
Ruslan Suleymanov
Tehran cannot now express outrage at the silence or insufficient condemnation. The fact that the Central Asian republics did not join the military actions and do not supply weapons to the US is already significant.
