Long-standing Confrontation: From Allies to Enemies
The history of relations between Israel and Iran has not always been hostile. Iran, which recognized Israel in 1950, maintained good relations with it until 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini came to power. From that moment on, Israel began to be perceived by Iran as the main enemy. The new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, continued the hostile rhetoric, proclaiming the destruction of "the little Satan — Israel and the big Satan — the USA" as the foundation of Iran's foreign policy.
Israel, in turn, viewed this as a threat and responded with similar measures, including military actions and espionage activities. Iran, along with the groups it supports, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, was recognized as the main threat to the state of Israel.
The USA, as Israel's main ally, also has deep roots in its antagonism toward Iran, which began after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The conflict includes ideological disagreements, competition for resources, and opposition to Iran's nuclear program.
Thus, the positions of the parties remain rigid and irreconcilable.
Escalation of the Conflict
Last summer, the confrontation entered an open phase when Israel and the USA stated that Iran was on the verge of creating nuclear weapons. The twelve-day war demonstrated the superiority of the US-Israeli alliance in technology but also revealed Iran's resistance. Despite its limited capabilities in countering airstrikes, Iranian forces were able to carry out strikes that partially overcame the Israeli air defense system and inflicted damage on targets within Israeli territory.
The current attack on Iran, which began on February 28, has surpassed previous military actions in scale, and the intensity of the attacks has also increased. Civilians are also suffering, as evidenced by the tragedy of a missile hitting a school, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of children.
As Iran cannot respond on equal terms, it is employing alternative strategies.
Iran is striking US bases and other targets in Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, as well as in Azerbaijan and Iraq. One of the missiles was intercepted over Turkey.
Iran is planning a long-term strategy aimed at destabilizing the region, raising oil prices, and creating economic difficulties for the USA so that they cannot continue the war. Its goal is not victory but survival and the preservation of the regime.
In turn, the USA and Israel hope that Iran will not be able to resist for long and will be forced to agree to their terms, including abandoning its nuclear program. The "decapitation" tactic of the regime, as happened in Venezuela, is also being applied here. However, Iran has proven to be more resilient, as more than forty high-ranking officials, including Ayatollah Khamenei, were eliminated on the very first day of the war, but new leaders quickly emerged in their place.
Nevertheless, plans for regime change in Iran continue.
This is not about the development of democracy, but about establishing a power that will agree with the demands of the USA.
Is there such a force in Iran? The opposition has long been weak, but there are "moderates" among the military and civilians who may support changes under certain conditions. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, living in the USA, also offers his ideas for the future of Iran, including the separation of religion from the state and normalization of relations with Israel.
Although the fall of the Ayatollah regime is currently unlikely, social and economic problems in Iran are becoming increasingly significant, as evidenced by mass protests in January 2026, triggered by high inflation and declining living standards. These protests were suppressed not only by the police but also by paramilitary formations, leading to thousands of casualties.
In recent years, Iran has also faced serious environmental issues.
The country is experiencing a severe shortage of drinking water, caused by prolonged drought and ineffective management.
Despite the existing discontent, support for the Ayatollah regime remains significant, leading to polarization in the country. The regime's resilience is ensured by harsh measures against the formation of opposition.
The Impact of the Conflict on Kyrgyzstan
For Kyrgyzstan, it is important that the Middle East lives in peace and stability, and therefore the country's position calling for a peaceful resolution of conflicts is strategically correct.
Iran, with a population of 93 million, has significant economic and cultural potential for the entire world, including Central Asia. For Kyrgyzstan, Iran represents the closest access to the sea, which, in conditions of long-term peace, could increase the country's transit opportunities and trade exchange.
However, from a real political perspective, it can be confidently stated that as long as the current Iranian regime remains in power, Israel and the USA will continue to exert pressure on it.
Even if the current hostilities cease, the likelihood of their resumption remains high.
The conflict will continue until one side changes its position or internal problems undermine its ability to resist.
As an example of peaceful resolution, one can cite the "Abraham Accords," signed in 2020 between Israel and Arab states, aimed at normalizing relations and cooperation. These agreements were made possible through US mediation and could serve as a model for future peace initiatives.
However, in the context of the current war, it is premature to speak of the prospects for similar agreements between Iran and Israel.
