The Gulf Stream is known to play a crucial role in maintaining warmth in Europe. Satellite observations show that over the past 30 years, the current has shifted 50 kilometers to the north. According to models, in the case of a sharp shift, the Gulf Stream could "jump" more than 200 km in just two years.
AMOC is responsible for transporting warm, salty water from the tropics to Northwestern Europe, where the water cools and returns south along the ocean floor. The Gulf Stream is part of this chain, running along the eastern coast of the United States to North Carolina.
The melting of Greenland's glaciers is leading to the influx of fresh water, which slows down the movement of AMOC and, in turn, causes the Gulf Stream to shift. Research by scientists from Utrecht University has found that the weakening of AMOC affects the direction of the Gulf Stream, causing it to move north before turning into the Atlantic. Satellite data confirm that over the past 30 years, the Gulf Stream has shifted by 50 km.
Historical data show that since 1950, the speed of the AMOC current has decreased by 15%. Continuous measurements since 2004 do not provide a complete understanding of the situation, so researchers are considering the trajectory of the Gulf Stream as an alternative indicator of the weakening circulation.
High-resolution modeling indicates that further weakening of AMOC could cause a sharp shift in the Gulf Stream of more than 200 kilometers in just two years, leading to the collapse of the circulation within a few decades. This could result in a sharp cooling in Europe, where temperatures in London could drop to −20 °C, and in Oslo to −48 °C.
Researchers emphasize that a sharp shift in the Gulf Stream could serve as a signal of the impending cessation of AMOC. However, the exact timelines remain uncertain and could vary from decades to centuries.
Experts warn that climate models may underestimate the rate of AMOC weakening, and the observed shift in the Gulf Stream confirms the trend of slowing ocean currents. This gives Europe the opportunity to prepare for potential climate changes, such as insulating buildings and revising agricultural practices.
