According to Doctor of Geographical Sciences Sheripzhan Nadyrov, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could provoke a significant flow of refugees from Iran to Kazakhstan. In an interview with the publication "Kursiv," he noted that in the event of a prolonged war, Kazakhstan would not be able to avoid this situation, as the country has virtually no legal mechanisms to deny Iranians relocation, considering the close trade and economic ties between the states.
Nadyrov believes that the Kazakh economy can withstand the arrival of 10,000 to 25,000 people without serious consequences for the domestic market. However, if the number of refugees exceeds this figure, it could lead to a rise in anti-migrant sentiments, create a shortage of places in educational institutions, and negatively affect the financial situation of socially vulnerable groups. The expert also suggests that the path to Europe will be closed for Iranians, which will result in the main flow of refugees passing through Azerbaijan and Pakistan, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will become intermediate points on the way to Kazakhstan.
The situation is exacerbated by the military operation of the USA and Israel against Iran, which began on February 28, already leading to a 13% increase in world oil prices. At the same time, Kazakh airlines have begun to massively cancel flights to cities such as Dubai, Doha, and Medina due to security threats in the region.
