In their new report, experts from QCP Capital point out that the rise in prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have emerged from a long sideways trend, coincided with recent events in Venezuela, including the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.
Breakthrough After a Long Period of Stability
At the beginning of trading in Asia, Bitcoin surpassed the $92,000 mark, while Ethereum rose above $3,100. This movement occurred against the backdrop of rising stock indices and falling oil prices, which analysts believe may be linked to actions by the United States.
According to QCP Capital, the correlation between the movement of cryptocurrencies and traditional assets may indicate a change in trading dynamics. Bullish sentiment is observed at the beginning of the new year, especially after the tax season has concluded and in anticipation of new legislative initiatives in the cryptocurrency sector.
The Impact of Venezuela and "Shadow" Reserves
Although many optimistic assumptions are already priced in, Maduro's arrest could serve as a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin's growth. Concurrently, rumors have resurfaced in the market regarding possible large reserves of Bitcoin held by Venezuela.
According to rumors, the Venezuelan government may control a significant "shadow" reserve of Bitcoin comparable to the assets of MicroStrategy; however, QCP Capital emphasizes that this data has not yet been confirmed.
If the information proves true, it could make Venezuela the largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin, aligning with the country's increasing dependence on cryptocurrencies, including the use of USDT in oil transactions starting in 2024.
Options Activity and Strategic Reserves
The potential addition of confiscated Bitcoin to the strategic reserves of the United States could reduce the likelihood of forced sales, highlighting the growing importance of Bitcoin amid international competition for accumulating this asset.
There is an optimistic trend in the options market. QCP Capital notes a decrease in put skew and the purchase of over 3,000 call options with a strike price of $100,000 expiring on January 30, 2026.
This strategy allows traders to acquire the right to buy Bitcoin at a price of $100,000 until the end of January 2026, providing the opportunity for profit if the price rises above this level. It also helps minimize risks by limiting maximum losses to the cost of the option premium.
Demand for growth-related strategies is also increasing, including straddles, which involve the simultaneous purchase of call and put options with the same strike price, indicating the closing of short positions and increasing gamma movement risk amid the ongoing rally.
Warning from QCP Capital
Despite positive trends, QCP Capital warns against excessive complacency. American trading sessions continue to restrain recent gains, and this pattern requires close attention.
Geopolitical events in Venezuela are creating a new dynamic for the cryptocurrency market, merging traditional politics with digital assets and opening up new opportunities.
Analysis from an AI Perspective
From a machine analysis standpoint, the connection between geopolitical events and cryptocurrency prices often proves erroneous. History shows that many Bitcoin movements have been attributed to external factors post-factum, from Federal Reserve decisions to military conflicts. Statistical analysis of over 100 such cases in the last five years indicates that in 70% of instances, the correlation disappears within a few trading sessions.
While the macroeconomic logic regarding the disinflationary effect of oil seems reasonable, it overlooks an important fact: Bitcoin traditionally responds weakly to fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index. More significant factors remain dollar liquidity and institutional flows. The hypothesis of Venezuela's "shadow reserves" resembles myths about treasures—it is appealing but requires more substantial evidence than mere market speculation.
Source: hashtelegraph.com
