In an interview with IA "Kabar," Ernest Karybekov, an expert in the energy sector, shared an analysis of the state of Kyrgyzstan's strategic reservoir at the end of the heating season. He noted that while the season passed without serious incidents, it is necessary to increase the resilience of the energy system. This will help avoid a situation where the Toktogul reservoir is on the brink of critical levels.
By April 1, the water level in the Toktogul reservoir is expected to be at 6.8 billion cubic meters. This figure is not ideal, but there have been lower values in the past. In any case, the water reserve still allows for the conclusion that the heating season ended without major problems.
Forecasts suggest that March will be rainy, and precipitation is already occurring with sufficient intensity. Although there was a lack of snow in the Chui Valley, there was enough in the Naryn region, which positively affects the main water artery, the Naryn (Syr Darya), that fills Toktogul.
At the moment, the average annual water inflow is within the norm, which should not cause problems with filling the reservoir. However, Karybekov expressed some concerns. According to the passport data of the Toktogul HPP, by the end of the heating season, the water level should be 12 billion cubic meters, and by the beginning of the autumn-winter period, it should reach 16 billion cubic meters.
Adhering to these standards is critically important, as in previous years the reservoir often dropped to dead volume, creating difficulties in filling it, regardless of the inflow level.
It is important to have a water reserve in case of dry years, which are becoming increasingly frequent. Having reserves in the strategic reservoir would allow for more efficient use of the hydropower plant even during periods of low water levels. Otherwise, it is necessary to conserve resources now and activate additional base capacities for electricity generation," added Ernest Karybekov.
