Baktybek Saipbaev, an ecologist and analyst, stated in a recent interview with IA "Kabar" that the current water level in the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station does not pose a serious threat for the autumn-winter period. However, he expressed concern about the growing trends that could lead to a crisis in Central Asia.
“The decrease in the water level in the Toktogul Reservoir is quite expected, as we have been facing low-water conditions for the past few years. At the same time, electricity consumption is growing at a rapid pace. Creating a balanced water-energy system under such conditions becomes extremely difficult. Don't forget that we have obligations to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to release water during the growing season and for irrigating agricultural lands in the summer,” he noted.
At the moment, the water level in the reservoir is high enough to get through the winter. However, if the low-water conditions continue, this could lead to serious problems. According to forecasts from many international experts, Central Asia is expecting a prolonged drought period.
Saipbaev emphasized the need to minimize water releases from the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station during the cold months. According to him, small-scale energy does not solve all problems, as its capabilities in the winter period are limited. Solar power plants are ineffective in fog, and wind farms depend on weather conditions and are not always stable.
Therefore, a reasonable step would be to build a powerful thermal power station near the Kara-Keche coal deposit. “I hope that this project will help us narrow the gap between the growth in electricity consumption and the generated capacity. But it is important to note that even if we solve the deficit problem for the coming years, we will not be able to ensure the creation of significant volumes of energy necessary for sustainable economic growth,” he added.
In this regard, Saipbaev considers it relevant to review and activate projects related to hydrogen and nuclear energy. These energy sources are not dependent on external factors, can provide the necessary capacity, and will help conserve the resources of the Toktogul Reservoir during the winter period.
He also reminded about the Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower project, where construction work has already begun. However, the implementation of this project may take up to 10 years, and we may not have that much time,” concluded Baktybek Saipbaev.
