“China is primarily focused on maintaining its own economic growth rates”
In an interview with LogiStan, Ivan Zuenko, a senior researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that “China is primarily focused on maintaining its own economic growth rates. Despite the current economic downturn, this is a temporary phenomenon. It will be followed by growth, which China intends to ensure, including through resources from Central Asia.”
— How are China’s plans in Central Asia changing and how quickly?
— In strategic terms, China maintains its previous goals. Cooperation between the PRC and the region is developing dynamically: trade volumes are increasing, and planned projects are being implemented on time. After 2022, in my opinion, Central Asian countries have become more open to deepening interaction with the PRC, especially against the backdrop of caution towards Russia.
— But there have been reports of China withdrawing from some projects in Central Asia, such as the relocation of enterprises and the construction of the Central Asia – China gas pipeline?
— At the moment, there is no official information that China has withdrawn from these projects.
— However, the timelines for the implementation of some projects have already been violated.
— One should approach the timelines of Chinese economic projects philosophically. This helps to better understand the specifics of Chinese investments in Central Asia and in Russian-Chinese projects as a whole. I am confident that even if China does indeed withdraw from some of its plans, it will not publicly announce this. Avoiding the word “no” is part of their business culture to avoid creating tension in relationships.
Projects that China decides to abandon will simply be forgotten over time.
China's investments in Central Asia: priorities and “red lines”
— Have you noticed any changes in China’s approaches to investments in Central Asia?
— No changes have been observed. China is still focused on the extraction and transportation of energy resources, which aligns with its priorities in this region.
China's partners should keep this in mind. In early March 2026, I published an article on this topic in the journal “Russia in Global Politics.”
Interestingly, while avoiding direct refusals, Chinese partners often give vague answers to less attractive proposals, claiming that they are interested in everything. But real actions often do not follow.
— What areas will China never invest in, despite its flexibility?
— “Red lines” for China are investments in casinos.
In other respects, if there is an opportunity to earn, China will act.
— Is opening production facilities abroad an investment and a profit?
— If we are talking specifically about production, then China invests in other countries only when there is a significant benefit.
For China, the benefit is not only high profits but also cost reduction. For example, on transportation or creating a workforce with lower costs.
China's partners should remember that it primarily focuses on its own economic growth.
Despite the slowdown of some projects and the decline in economic indicators, this is a temporary phenomenon. Growth will follow the downturn, and China will obtain resources from Central Asia.
Revision of Chinese projects abroad
— Is China revising its projects in Central Asia?
— A revision was conducted about ten years ago, after the fall in the stock markets.
In 2015-2016, there was a review in China, where it was found that a large portion of investments had been used inefficiently. This became a turning point when the volume of Chinese investments, especially through state funds, significantly decreased. Since then, China has become more selective in choosing projects.
— When will China rethink its actions in Central Asia again?
— China does not categorize Central Asia separately. This region is viewed as “close neighbors,” similar to Southeast Asia and Russia. Interaction with other regions, such as Africa or Latin America, is structured differently.
The main foreign policy logic of China is similar for all countries: it seeks to establish bilateral relations, avoiding interference in internal affairs and relying on economic pragmatism.
China's strategy in Central Asia remains unchanged within the designated frameworks. Changes are only possible with new leadership.
— What argument prevails in the implementation of projects in Central Asia: political or economic?
— Economic. Unlike the West, China does not interfere in the internal affairs of countries and is ready to work with any existing governments.
If it is a secular government, then Beijing will cooperate with it, recognizing its legitimacy. If Islamists come to power, as in Afghanistan, China is ready to work with them too. Internal political issues do not interest it.
However, during periods of political instability in other countries, China takes a wait-and-see approach and suspends projects until power stabilizes.
— What does “sufficiently stable power” in other countries mean for China?
— For China, it does not matter how the government came to power — this is an internal matter for each country. The main thing is that it can control the situation for a sufficiently long time.
This approach is based on ancient traditions of Chinese civilization, where ruling dynasties changed many times. During periods of political turmoil, different claimants fought for power, and eventually, one of them established control.
Thus, China is ready to work with whoever becomes the ruler. The examples of Afghanistan and Syria confirm this.
— Perhaps China is surprised by the instability in Kyrgyzstan and the attempted coup in Kazakhstan in early 2022?
— Yes, this is surprising.
Fears of China are exaggerated
— Some experts, including Alexey Bezborodov, believe that China may change the rules of the game in the logistics market of Central Asia and Russia, bringing everything under its control. How do you assess this?
— I respect Alexey as a specialist, but I suggest looking at the situation in a broader context, not only from the perspective of transportation but in terms of interaction with China.
The market is governed by the laws of competition. Russia, China, Central Asian countries, and other players operate within these frameworks. A new player offering quality and cheap services will win.
Russian road carriers are more competitive than Central Asian ones in some parameters.
In the field of rail transportation, the situation is simpler: each country has its monopolists. For example, “Russian Railways” in Russia, “Kazakhstan Temir Zholy” in Kazakhstan, and “Uzbekiston Temir Yullari” in Uzbekistan.
China, as our neighbor, uses our railways to transport its goods, but it will not be able to acquire part of the railway track or port due to restrictions on foreign investments in strategic facilities in Russia.
Therefore, China will not be able to completely seize Russian logistics, and I doubt it can do so with Central Asian logistics either.
However, to claim that China should not be present in logistics or other sectors of the economy is unrealistic. China understands the rules of the game and has significant competitive advantages that it will undoubtedly use.
I am not ready to quarrel with Bezborodov, as he understands the logistics of the region better. My point of view is based on an understanding of the specifics of interaction with China.
— And still, should Central Asia be afraid of China?
— No one should be afraid, but “not being afraid” does not mean opening doors and shouting “take everything.” These are two extremes.
Each country should protect its economic interests. Strong states have more leverage, weaker ones have less, but all defend their interests, even if with lesser chances of success.
— How should we better interact with China, considering our strengths and weaknesses?
— In general, when interacting with China as an economic partner, we should assess how important and exclusive its offer is for us. China provides access to a large market and quality services.
On the other hand, it is important to understand how this offer aligns with our tasks and national interests, which should be prioritized. China also adheres to a similar approach and understands that other countries may take measures to protect their interests.
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