According to the NYT, Israeli intelligence "Mossad" underestimated the likelihood of an uprising in Iran following airstrikes.
During preparations for war with Iran, Barnea presented his ideas to senior officials in the Trump administration during a visit to Washington in mid-January. Netanyahu supported this plan, despite the doubts expressed by some American officials and specialists from Israeli services. Both Trump and Netanyahu maintained an optimistic view of the situation.
They believed that the elimination of key Iranian leaders at the beginning of the conflict, followed by intelligence operations aimed at supporting regime change, could lead to mass protests and a swift end to the war.
However, three weeks after the onset of hostilities, the Iranian uprising did not materialize. Analysis from American and Israeli intelligence showed that the theocratic government of Iran, although weakened, remained in power, and fear of the military and police significantly reduced the likelihood of both internal protests and external invasions.
The idea that Israel and the U.S. could provoke a mass uprising was a serious miscalculation in the strategy for preparing for a conflict that engulfed the entire Middle East. Instead of the anticipated collapse, the Iranian government solidified its position and exacerbated the conflict.
According to information from current and former American and Israeli officials, Netanyahu used the optimistic forecasts of "Mossad" to convince Trump of the feasibility of the goal of overthrowing the Iranian government.
Nevertheless, many senior American officials and analysts from Israeli military intelligence were skeptical of the "Mossad" plan to provoke an uprising. The U.S. military leadership informed Trump that Iranians would not take to the streets in protest while bombings were ongoing.
Intelligence estimates suggested that the likelihood of a mass uprising threatening the theocratic regime was low, and they doubted that the American-Israeli intervention would lead to a civil war.
The media report: "Mossad" underestimated the consequences of airstrikes for Iran first appeared in K-News.
