According to information from the WSJ, Iran intends to apply the lessons learned from the conflict in Ukraine in its confrontation with the U.S. A new approach to warfare using drones is being actively implemented in the Middle East.
President Trump has sent thousands of American troops to the region. If his latest attempts at a diplomatic resolution fail, he is considering options for conducting ground and naval operations to regain control over the Strait of Hormuz and compel Iran to announce a ceasefire.
If American troops land in Iran, they will face a situation where drones will be the main threat. This is significantly different from previous U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, where the primary dangers were small arms and improvised explosive devices.
According to retired Royal Air Force Marshal Martin Sampson, "any American troops or naval vessels in the Persian Gulf will become easy targets, and FPV drones will be part of the arsenal of both sides." Sampson also heads the Middle East program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
He stated that American forces heading to the region are likely not equipped with modern counter-drone measures that have become commonplace in Ukraine, despite having jamming systems.
"Iran may have anticipated this weakness and gained insights from Russia on how to exploit it," he added.
Drones with visual control are not the only innovation that has changed warfare tactics. Ukraine, whose traditional navy, like Iran's, has been significantly destroyed, has used maritime drones to attack Russian warships, causing serious damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. As a result, Kyiv has created a no-fly zone for the Russian fleet in the western part of the Black Sea, including important shipping routes to Odessa.
Military experts believe that Iranian maritime drones are unlikely to possess the same level of sophistication as Ukrainian ones and lack high-tech features such as navigation via Starlink. Nevertheless, in the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz, they could pose a serious threat to naval vessels and oil tankers.
Russia is actively cooperating with Tehran in the field of military technology and sharing knowledge gained during one of the bloodiest conflicts in Europe in recent decades, according to Western and Ukrainian officials.
The question is how well the U.S. armed forces have adapted to the new style of warfare they may encounter if Trump decides on ground operations to seize coastal areas or islands in Iran.
"Iran has an experienced teacher in Russia, and it has carefully studied the lessons of this war," noted a Russian expert in the field. "I have not noticed the same level of readiness on the part of the U.S."
"We are still in the early stages in American military units, trying to understand FPV technology, its impact on the armed forces, and the implications for existing tactics, techniques, and procedures... If we assess the current defensive capabilities, we have a long way to go to reach the level that Ukraine is at right now," said Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
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