Unlike illegal tariffs, wars cannot simply be started or stopped at the whim of the president or for the sake of maintaining unstable markets.
In light of this, after Donald Trump postponed potential strikes on Iranian power plants, an important question arises: not only has he survived yet another "TACO" moment, but will he be able to exit the conflict with Iran if he wishes to do so.
On Monday, after several days of contradictory statements, Trump announced the first potential de-escalation, referring to 15 points of an agreement that, according to him, were reached during negotiations with Iran. However, Tehran denied the existence of any dialogues.
The optimistic view of the situation is that both sides have reached a point where further escalation will become too costly, and they will need to find a way out. Such moments can be precursors to conflicts.
Trump pushed his opponents to the limit by threatening to bomb Iranian power plants if Tehran does not open the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil exports. Iran responded with threats to destroy critical infrastructure of U.S. allies in the region. This escalation could lead to a global recession and worsen the humanitarian situation for Iranian citizens, whom Trump promised to help.
Nevertheless, there are many reasons to doubt that a breakthrough is possible in the near future.
Discrepancies in Trump's rhetoric and the lack of a clear strategy for exiting the war mean that his statements are met with skepticism.
The president's habit of threatening to strike Iran at the last minute means that no one would be surprised if he breaks his temporary moratorium on attacks.
Some skeptics believe that Trump's pause will last until the end of the trading week on global markets. Given the drop in futures and the rise in oil prices, he may simply be trying to create an additional cushion for the markets.
This is not the first time official statements have been used to reduce volatility. It worked: the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices rose by more than 1% on Monday, while the price of Brent crude oil fell by 11%. American drivers are hoping for lower gasoline prices.
Reasons for Trump to De-escalate
Trump may also need time for another reason: the American forces that could provide him with the opportunity to invade Kharg — a major center of Iran's oil industry — are not yet fully prepared. One group of Marines sent from Japan may soon arrive in the region, but another has just left the West Coast.
It is important to remember that Trump is often prone to exaggeration. His statements about diplomatic progress and claims that Iran "very much" wants to make a deal may be nothing more than exaggerations. Nevertheless, sometimes such statements are used to create conditions for real breakthroughs.
Trump's unpredictable oscillations between threats and a desire for a peaceful resolution of the conflict contradict the traditions of stable military leadership, but this is typical of his style. By Monday, his actions appeared to be a ploy allowing him to claim that his tough measures led to diplomatic progress.
This unpredictability and the desire to mitigate crises of his own making are well known to Trump from his personal and political career. Each day becomes a struggle for survival, and by employing this strategy, Trump postpones the consequences of his actions.
However, there is a serious likelihood that his methods may exceed acceptable limits in the Persian Gulf.
During the conflict, Iran may find itself at a disadvantage compared to the U.S. and Israel, suffering significant losses in its naval, air, and ground forces.
However, after four weeks of conflict, Iran has demonstrated its leverage, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and taking the global economy hostage, as well as the political hopes of Republicans for the elections in November.
Logic suggests that an ultra-radical regime, which was stable before the war, is unlikely to become more open to Trump's demands after the assassination of its leader and attacks by American and Israeli forces.
The conditions that Trump sets for ending the war — likely including Iran's abandonment of its nuclear program and ballistic missiles — may prove difficult to fulfill. This is because the last three weeks have shown that a rogue regime may view such concessions as necessary protection against possible future attacks.
Even if negotiations begin — and Pakistan has offered its assistance in organizing them — it is unclear who will represent Iran. A regime that has decentralized power and lost key figures may struggle with collective decision-making. If, as some experts believe, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now fully controls the situation, it may become even more hardline in its positions.
Moreover, in the past, Washington has negotiated with moderate Iranian officials but has only faced more radical figures who refuse to compromise.
It would not be surprising if Iranian leaders interpret Trump's contradictory statements as signs that their strategy of imposing economic sanctions is beginning to work.
Problems with All of Trump's Options
No one can predict what awaits Iran in the future. It is possible that the assassinations of high-ranking leaders and U.S. and Israeli attacks have caused serious cracks in the regime that are not yet visible. But at present, there are no clear signs of its collapse.
The air war has significantly reduced the regional threat from Iran. But if even brute force has not broken the regime, Trump has not explained why Iran should relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz without substantial concessions from the U.S.
It is not hard to understand why Trump may be interested in negotiations. He needs an exit from the situation, as many of his possible actions are disadvantageous.
He could escalate the war by focusing attacks on Iranian facilities, but there is no guarantee that this would weaken Tehran enough to ensure the safety of shipping transit.
Deploying ground troops would also mean crossing a political Rubicon, reminiscent of the endless wars that Trump has opposed.
The option of a TACO agreement and declaring victory, regardless of its authenticity, looks tempting. But this would leave U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf vulnerable to retribution from Iran. Exiting the war without ensuring the security of Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium could allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons and undermine Trump's main arguments for war.
Presidents often face crises where there are no good solutions, but few encounter situations as tangled as the one Trump has created in Iran.
The record "Trump and Iran: On the Brink of Stalemate" first appeared on K-News.
