Rumors about the desire of Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to take the position of UN Secretary-General and the related haste in adopting a new Constitution are actively discussed both in the country and beyond. Despite the lack of official statements, experts believe that such a prospect should not be ruled out, writes Azattyq Asia.
Origins of the Rumors
Speculations about Tokayev's possible departure to international structures began circulating some time ago. Discussions intensified after his initiative to introduce the position of vice president, appointed by the president and performing his duties in case of resignation or death. However, an official source in Akorda denied these rumors.
On March 13, Reuters reported, citing a "source in Kazakhstan's diplomacy," that Tokayev is "considering the possibility of both running for the position of Secretary-General and continuing his powers for a second presidential term." However, specific details remain unknown.
Kazakh expert Dosym Satpaev noted in an interview with Reuters that the new vice-presidential position would give Tokayev the opportunity to appoint a successor even before his possible departure.
The new Constitution, adopted in a referendum on March 15 and coming into force on July 1, states that in the event of the president's departure, his powers will transition to the vice president, and new elections must be held within two months. Tokayev was elected for a seven-year term under the current Constitution, which does not allow him to run again in the elections on November 20, 2022, and his powers are set to end in November 2029.
What Does Tokayev Himself Say?
In his address to the people in September 2025, Tokayev proposed reforms in parliament and changes to the Constitution that would be discussed over the year, with plans to hold a referendum in 2027. At the Kurultai in January 2026, Tokayev outlined the main directions of the reforms, including the creation of the vice-presidential position.
The discussion of the reform occurred faster than expected: the final draft of the Basic Law was published in February, and the referendum was scheduled for mid-March.
On March 15, the day of the referendum, Tokayev voted in Astana and held a briefing for journalists, during which police detained a correspondent from Azattyq and other journalists. One of the journalists from the Jibek Joly channel asked Tokayev about a possible connection between the constitutional reform and preparations for a change of power.
Tokayev's response concerned the functions of the vice president and international experience. In the version circulated by Akorda, he assured that "the next presidential elections will take place within the timeframe established by the current Constitution — in 2029," which seemingly refuted rumors about his departure to the UN. However, in the video version released by the presidential media complex, this phrase is absent, raising questions about its editing.
Despite this, Tokayev has repeatedly stated that he does not intend to go to the UN. In an interview with the newspaper "Ana tili" on January 3, 2025, he emphasized that he has enough experience working in Geneva, and in a conversation with the publication Turkistan in 2026, he noted that he does not seek to return to work at the UN, despite the interest of several countries.
Interest in the Position of UN Secretary-General
Some experts note that Tokayev's actions sometimes contradict his statements, which can be seen in the example of constitutional changes. In this regard, analysts suggest that he is still considering the possibility of leading the UN as an option for leaving the presidency.
Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Berlin, believes that working at the UN could provide Tokayev with international security. "There are rumors that Kassym-Jomart Kemelovich has always dreamed of becoming the UN Secretary-General. For him, this could be a guarantee of security, as he would step outside of Kazakh politics," Umarov noted in an interview with the BBC.
"For Tokayev, it is more interesting to lead the UN than to govern Kazakhstan. He ended up in his position by chance, as he is a career diplomat and is close to the international sphere. Moreover, being appointed to such a position in Central Asian countries is considered very prestigious," said a Central Asia expert in an interview with the Russian publication Meduza.
Human rights defenders and civil society representatives in Kazakhstan have repeatedly criticized Tokayev for his actions during the January events of 2022, when more than 238 people died. They called for him to be held accountable for the order to shoot "without warning." International organizations note the deterioration of the human rights situation in the country, although the authorities of Kazakhstan deny these accusations. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights stated during the discussion of the Constitution draft that "alternative voices are being suppressed," and that the presence of the executive branch in civil space is increasing, which weakens the system of checks and balances.
Peter Leonard, director of communications at CAPS Unlock, believes that Tokayev's move to the UN could be a reasonable step for a leader considering power transfer options in a region where former presidents cannot leave peacefully.
Tokayev's Career at the UN and International Connections
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a career diplomat, served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs in the early years of Kazakhstan's independence. Before returning to the country and taking the position of Senate Chairman, he worked as the Deputy Secretary-General of the UN from 2011 to 2013 and headed the organization's office in Geneva.
Tokayev has long spoken about the need to reform UN structures. In September 2025, at the 80th session of the General Assembly, he stated that "the voices of responsible middle powers must be heard in the Security Council."
The UN is the only platform with the highest legitimacy on the global stage. The main functions of the organization include resolving international conflicts, providing humanitarian aid, and monitoring compliance with international law. The UN Secretary-General is elected for a five-year term, with the possibility of re-election.
When US President Donald Trump invited Tokayev to join the Council of Peace, he immediately agreed. In February 2026, he participated in a council meeting and expressed readiness to send troops to Gaza as part of an international mission.
On March 19, Trump sent an official letter to Tokayev, inviting him as an honorary guest to the G20 summit in Miami, which will take place at the end of the year. This invitation could increase Tokayev's chances in the race for the position of UN Secretary-General.
Support for Tokayev's Candidacy
Peter Leonard believes that Tokayev's experience in Geneva, his connections with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as well as his friendly relations with Donald Trump, could play an important role in his possible nomination for the position of Secretary-General.
Ken Moriasu, editor of Nikkei Asia, covering political events in Eurasia, writes that Tokayev "definitely appeals to Trump."
Given his close relationships with most permanent members of the Security Council, Tokayev may count on support if he decides to run.
Kazakh political scientist Viktor Kovtunovsky believes that Russia could become the main supporter of Tokayev's candidacy. "Putin may play the role of matchmaker in the 'great game' surrounding the new Secretary-General. He has the motivation to secure a reliable partner at the UN," he noted on Facebook.
Support from France may be due to the need for uranium, of which Kazakhstan is the main producer.
Journalist and expert Anatoly Ivanov-Vaysskopf believes that Tokayev's knowledge of French could also enhance his chances. "French is considered critically important for candidates for UN Secretary-General, as in recent votes, France, as a permanent member of the Security Council, has always rejected candidates who do not speak French," he writes in a piece for the Cronos.asia website.
Knowledge of Chinese and experience working in China, as well as Astana's support for important infrastructure projects in Beijing, could create additional opportunities for Tokayev.
Competition for the Position of UN Secretary-General
The position of UN Secretary-General is the highest diplomatic position in the largest international organization. Candidate registration ends in April. Candidates will participate in hearings at the General Assembly, where they will present their programs and answer questions.
From July to October, 15 members of the UN Security Council will secretly vote to select one candidate to be presented to the General Assembly. If the candidate does not receive support from the five permanent members of the Security Council — the USA, China, Russia, France, and the UK — he will not be confirmed. The General Assembly will formally approve the appointment in early November, but in practice, the decision is made by the permanent members of the Security Council.
"According to the UN Charter, the General Assembly appoints a new Secretary-General upon the recommendation of the Security Council. In practice, the permanent members of the UN with veto power have historically chosen the candidate, leaving the 193 members of the Assembly the right to formally approve their choice," writes Helen Murphy, editor of the American publication Devex.
According to an unofficial agreement, candidates for the position of UN Secretary-General are nominated in turn from representatives of different continents. For example, the current head António Guterres represents Portugal and Western Europe; his predecessor Ban Ki-moon represented South Korea and Asia; and Kofi Annan represented Ghana and Africa.
However, the rotational principle is not enshrined in the UN electoral rules, and candidates from other regions can also be nominated.
Who Has Already Been Nominated for the Position of Secretary-General?
At the moment, Tokayev is not on the list of official candidates for the position of UN Secretary-General. The official UN website lists five individuals, including strong candidates. For example, Michelle Bachelet, nominated by Chile, Brazil, and Mexico, is a former president of Chile and head of the UN Human Rights Committee. Rafael Grossi, nominated by Argentina, currently heads the IAEA. The list also includes former Senegalese President Macky Sall and Virginia Gamba, who led the UN Office for Disarmament.
Aleshka Simkich, who previously worked at the UN and is now the EU ambassador to Kazakhstan, told the Kazakh publication Ulysmedia that the next Secretary-General will likely be a woman, as "former presidents or heads of state are always chosen for this position."
Speculations about Tokayev's "move to the UN" are considered by some experts to be merely a distraction from more pressing issues. "I would not rush to conclusions," says Kazakh political scientist Dimash Alzhanov. "Although the mechanisms with the vice president exist, I do not think they are created for someone else. The prospects for 2029 remain unclear, and a more likely scenario will be the stabilization of power and its preservation. Talks about the UN and successors distract from the real tasks that the president must address," concludes Alzhanov.
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