— Why is there a growing interest from the USA in Central Asia and frequent visits by high-ranking American officials?
— This is related to changes in the global order. On December 4, Washington presented a new security strategy that effectively ends the era that began after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. This order began to crumble in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Today, the world is fragmented, and traditional rules no longer apply.
“On this road, everyone is on their own, and the size and power of the vehicle are the only criteria.”
Stanislav Belkovsky
Currently, the USA is not a global moderator but merely the most powerful player on this road. They need the energy that Central Asia has: rare earth metals, traditional resources, and logistics.
— So, Washington no longer sees Moscow as its competitor in this region?
— Yes, Moscow is no longer in that league. For the USA, there is no qualitative difference between Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. They interact with all of them directly, without hierarchies.
“Russia has lost influence based on soft power. When it is exhausted, war begins. This also applies to the conflict in Ukraine.”
Stanislav Belkovsky
Today, the main threat to the USA is China, which already controls significant resources and logistics routes thanks to the "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
— What do you think about Donald Trump's invitations to Tokayev and Mirziyoyev to the so-called Board of Peace? Could this lead to fragmentation in the region?
— In a fragmented world, hierarchies do not exist. The USA will work with each country separately, and regional unions are not important to them.
“Board of Peace” is a personal project of Trump, which aims to show that there is a more effective governance structure than the UN, and that he, as the “chairman of the globe,” can make decisions.
— Could the "Board of Peace" undermine existing regional unions, such as the Organization of Turkic States?
— I don’t think so. Everything will depend on the ambitions of Turkey and its President Erdogan. If this organization has resources, it will survive and become stronger. However, Trump will work with individual states, not unions.
— Azerbaijan is striving for balance with Turkey. Is this possible?
— Azerbaijan demonstrates how to act effectively in a fragmented world. If a state has resources, it can be equal to any other player.
We have seen how Baku interacts with France and Russia, not seeking imperial influence, but showing that old hierarchies no longer work.
— Is there a chance for the USA to push China out of the region?
— Completely — no. But it is possible to weaken its positions, although much depends on the consistency of Washington's actions.
Trump has a philosophy of “The Fox and the Grapes”: if something doesn’t work out, he can quickly lose interest. In the modern world, the one who uses diverse opportunities wins.
Just like Azerbaijan, which maintains ties with both Turkey and Israel, despite their contradictions. Similarly, Central Asian countries can interact with both the USA and China simultaneously, without tying their fate to a single player.
— Should countries outside the "Board of Peace" seek contacts with Trump?
— Absolutely, they should. What is important is what they can offer. Trump is interested in rare earth metals, energy resources, artificial intelligence technologies, and finance.
“If there is business — the doors are always open.”
Stanislav Belkovsky
However, how to protect their national interests and avoid manipulation by the USA is a question that each country must solve independently.
P.S. Returning to the previous order is no longer possible — neither under Trump nor after. The world will remain fragmented, and small states have a chance to act on equal terms if they learn to maneuver between centers of power and avoid dependence on a single player.
