According to the latest data, the water level in the Caspian Sea along the shores of Kazakhstan continues to decline. The news agency Tengrinews.kz has published forecasts regarding the future of the Caspian Sea until 2050.
The Ministry of Ecology of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports that from 2006 to 2025, the shoreline has retreated by 30-35 kilometers in some areas.
Among the key factors contributing to the shallowing, experts highlight changing climate conditions, increased evaporation, reduced inflow of fresh water, and human activity.
Long-term forecasts presented by "Kazhydromet" consider two possible scenarios for changes in sea level: optimistic and pessimistic.
According to the optimistic scenario, the level of the Caspian Sea could drop to -29.8 meters according to the Baltic height system by 2030 and to -32.4 meters by 2050.
At the same time, the pessimistic scenario predicts that the level could reach -30 meters by 2030 and drop to -34 meters by 2050 (also according to the Baltic height system).
This suggests that water will recede from the shore, and coastal areas will gradually become land.
As Tengrinews.kz emphasizes, "the problem of the Caspian Sea has gone beyond the national agenda. Kazakhstan is initiating the creation of an Intergovernmental Program for the Protection of Water Resources, cooperating with the Caspian states. At the highest level, the country is calling on the global scientific community for joint research."
Baltic height system (BHS) — is a system used for measuring heights in several countries. The zero level is defined by the average level of the Baltic Sea recorded in Kronstadt, allowing values to be both above and below zero.
