Sanctions and changes in global relations contribute to the deepening of Moscow's ties with the countries of the region
The expert claims that in 2026, Russia's interest in Central Asia will not only persist but will also become one of the priorities in Moscow's political and economic strategy.
Central Asia as a key priority for Moscow
According to the specialist, even if Russia begins to gradually return to the European market in 2026, it is too early to talk about restoring the previous level of relations with the European Union. Karavaev believes that the pressure from sanctions will remain for many years, and the "conflictual era" in relations with the EU will not automatically end after the special military operation.
“Sanctions will not be lifted in the coming years, and economic ties are unlikely to return to the level that existed before February 2022,” he added.
Therefore, in his opinion, Moscow's interest in Central Asia will remain high. Moreover, the region has already become an important "economic gateway" for Russia, a trend that has strengthened since 2022 and will continue in 2026, as emphasized by Karavaev.
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan as strategic partners
The expert highlighted Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which, in his opinion, have become particularly valuable to Russia as countries most suitable for economic projects and investments.
Karavaev believes that this is due to two main factors: the insufficient integration of these countries into Western Atlantic economic structures and their willingness to remove barriers to bilateral cooperation with Russia.
“For Moscow, Uzbekistan and, to a certain extent, Kyrgyzstan have become more valuable,” he noted.
As for Kazakhstan, according to Karavaev, it takes a more cautious position, trying to avoid political and economic risks. The effectiveness of this strategy, in his opinion, will become evident in the near future.
Economic growth as an attractive factor
The expert draws attention to the high investment potential of Central Asia. He emphasizes that data from infrastructure banks show that the region demonstrates sustainable GDP growth, exceeding many other parts of Eurasia.
By the end of 9-10 months of 2025:
Kyrgyzstan showed GDP growth of 10.3%,
Uzbekistan - 7.6%,
Kazakhstan - 6.4%.
Karavaev believes that a significant part of this growth is related to the partial reorientation of Russian trade and the interest of external suppliers in creating industrial sites in Central Asia focused on the Russian market.
2026 will be a time when Russia relies on its own resources
Speaking about the future, the expert characterized 2026 as a period when Russia will focus on its own resources and potential. He believes that the old model, based on the availability of external markets, technologies, and specialists, no longer works.
“Russia can only rely on its own resources and the support of a limited circle of close partners,” noted Karavaev.
He primarily refers to the countries of Central Asia and, with certain reservations, the South Caucasus as such partners.
Technological cooperation and its prospects
The expert also noted that Russia does not intend to compete with China as the largest investment donor for the region. Instead, Moscow is focusing on specific sectors and projects, continuing to fulfill commitments for already implemented initiatives.
Among the areas where Russian technologies may be in demand in Central Asia, he mentioned nuclear energy and aircraft manufacturing. He reminded of the nuclear power plant projects in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, as well as negotiations with Kyrgyzstan.
Additionally, the expert pointed to the potential for cooperation in modern aircraft engines — PD-8, PD-14, and PD-35, not excluding the possibility of creating joint production programs within the EAEU.
Thus, according to Alexander Karavaev, Central Asia in 2026 will remain one of the key regions for Russia both economically and strategically. Despite the pressure of external restrictions, Moscow will continue to build a pragmatic model of interaction with the region, based on mutual interest and alignment of long-term goals.
