Kazakhstani economists shared their estimates of fuel price growth in connection with the upcoming integration of the fuel market, which is scheduled for January 1, 2027, as part of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Forecast by Rakhimbek Abdrakhmanov
Abdrakhmanov believes that Kazakhs should be prepared for a significant increase in fuel prices, as integration will lead to a revision of the price balance between neighboring countries. He noted that currently, the price of gasoline in Kazakhstan is about twice as low as in Russia and Kyrgyzstan, and with price alignment, the increase could be from 70 to 90%. This is likely to happen quickly, which will negatively affect the economic situation of citizens.
Considering that the price of AI-92 gasoline as of March 12 is 239 tenge, possible scenarios for price increases could look as follows:
- With a 70% increase, the price will rise to 406 tenge per liter.
- With a 90% increase - to 454 tenge per liter.
Forecast by Almas Chukin
Although the Ministry of Energy previously reported a gradual increase in prices without sharp jumps, Chukin agrees with Abdrakhmanov's opinion. He noted that despite the gradual nature of the process, consumers will feel its consequences. The economist emphasized that market logic will contribute to price increases to levels similar to those in countries with free pricing.
Chukin pointed to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where the cost of AI-92 is about 385 and 489 tenge respectively, as benchmarks for assessing prices in Kazakhstan.
He also highlighted Russia, where fuel prices are significantly lower, but this is due to hidden subsidies. Chukin explained that the Russian government compensates gasoline producers for costs, distorting the real price level. If these subsidies are taken into account, the real cost of fuel in Russia would be significantly higher.
“The prices we see at gas stations in Russia do not reflect the real market situation. If we consider the subsidies, the price in Kazakhstan should be higher than in Russia. The current situation in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is more in line with real market conditions,” the economist concluded.
According to Chukin's opinion, in the future, the price of gasoline in Kazakhstan may be around 400 tenge per liter, which corresponds to the prices in neighboring countries.
