Weather Prophet Atay from Jumgal
Among the folk weather predictors, Atai from Jumgal was known for his observations of cloud patterns.
For example, he believed that if, during the rainy autumn days, the clouds linger over the pasture of Bash-Kugandy for a long time, then the upcoming winter will be dry and warm. If in winter the clouds slowly move towards the Kyz-Azart pass and stay there, and additionally, frequently appearing bands of fog over the mountains join them, then the upcoming spring will be rainy.
Some local elders noted: In early May, when the cuckoos arrive in the Tian Shan, a dark cloud known as "Sabyr's cloud" appears, bringing rain; thus, the summer will be rainy, and the following winter will be mild.
The appearance of clouds in Tian Shan is not directly related to the arrival of the mentioned bird: local residents have repeatedly observed the coincidence of the cuckoos' arrival with the appearance of clouds, which led to the belief that the arrival of these birds causes rainy clouds.
The return of cuckoos to their nesting sites follows a biological law: they must raise their chicks where they themselves hatched from eggs, and this occurs neither earlier nor later than May. In central Tian Shan, anticyclones and cyclones often repeat. Generally speaking, knowledge of temperature, humidity, wind direction, and speed, depending on atmospheric pressure conditions, allows for weather forecasting anywhere on the globe. Atmospheric pressure is the force exerted by the entire atmosphere on the Earth's surface, on every living organism. Normal atmospheric pressure is equal to 760 mm of mercury at zero degrees Celsius. Deviation from this value in either direction is a signal of changing weather.
The recurrence of cyclones, which are areas of low pressure, is highest in spring. In summer, cyclones bring rain, thunderstorms, and sometimes strong winds, while in winter they bring fog and warm weather. Anticyclones, on the other hand, are areas of high pressure; in summer they bring dry weather, while in winter they bring severe cold. Thus, Atai's predictions can be scientifically explained: clouds gathering over the Kyz-Art pass in the Jumgal region indicate the approach of a southwestern cyclone, which is why spring in these areas will be rainy. If clouds gather over the pasture of Bash-Kugandy (in the north of Jumgal), it indicates that this pasture is the location of the cyclones.
