The study published in The Lancet Global Health established a causal link between the imposition of sanctions and an increase in mortality across different age groups. The authors of the paper, including Francisco Rodríguez, Silvio Rendón, and Mark Weisbrot, analyzed data from 152 countries over the period from 1971 to 2021, using various analytical methods such as entropy balancing and Granger causality.
Unilateral Sanctions and Their Consequences
The most catastrophic consequences were associated with unilateral economic sanctions, particularly those imposed by the United States. In contrast, sanctions imposed by the UN did not demonstrate a significant impact on mortality, which the researchers attribute to more rigorous public oversight.
Mortality due to sanctions varied by age: among children under 5 years old, it increased by 8.4%, while among the elderly (60-80 years), this figure was only 2.4%. The most vulnerable group turned out to be children.
Time series data show that the impact of sanctions on mortality rates increases over time. For example, in the first three years, infant mortality increased by 5.8%, and after seven years, this figure reached 10%.
Mortality on the Scale of Half a Million
The researchers estimated that unilateral sanctions lead to approximately 564,258 deaths annually, comparable to the annual losses from armed conflicts, which amount to about 106,000 lives. Children under five account for 51% of all deaths caused by sanctions from 1970 to 2021, and 77% of the victims are in the age groups of 0-15 and 60-80 years.
The study utilized data from the Global Sanctions Database (GSDB), which is the most comprehensive and up-to-date source on sanctions. The analysis focused on measures imposed by the U.S., EU, and UN, which have significant influence due to their economic capabilities.
Mechanisms of Sanction Impact
Sanctions negatively affect public health through several mechanisms. First, they reduce the quality of public healthcare due to decreased budget revenues. Second, restrictions on the import of critically important goods worsen the availability of medical supplies and food.
The actions of humanitarian organizations are also constrained by sanctions, making it difficult for them to operate in target countries.
American sanctions are generally aimed at regime change, which is sometimes acknowledged by politicians as part of the strategy. The U.S. and Europe have powerful mechanisms that exacerbate both the economic and humanitarian consequences of sanctions, including the widespread use of the dollar and euro in international trade.
Increase in the Use of Sanctions
In recent decades, the use of economic sanctions has significantly increased. According to the Global Sanctions Database, 25% of countries were subjected to sanctions by the U.S., EU, or UN from 2010 to 2022, while in the 1960s, this figure was only 8%.
The share of the global economy under unilateral sanctions rose from 5.4% in the 1960s to 24.7% in 2010-2022. This is related to the increasing number of sanctions aimed at ending conflicts and protecting human rights.
Different types of sanctions have varying impacts: unilateral sanctions negatively affect all age groups, while UN sanctions do not show a statistically significant effect.
Research Methodology
The authors employed several methods for causal analysis, including entropy balancing and event studies, as well as Granger causality tests. Instrumental variables accounted for exogenous sources of variation.
Ethical Aspects
The results of the study raise important questions about the moral implications of using economic sanctions. The ethical assessment of the impact of sanctions depends on the frameworks in which they are considered, and the findings of the study may serve as a basis for discussions about their reconsideration.
From a human rights perspective, any evidence indicating loss of life should serve as a reason to refrain from imposing sanctions. However, from a consequentialist viewpoint, it is also important to consider their effectiveness in achieving stated political goals.
The study highlights that unilateral sanctions are associated with increased mortality, while UN sanctions do not have such an effect, which may be explained by stricter public oversight.
Limitations of the Study
Like any study, this one has its limitations related to the use of non-experimental data. The authors note potential biases and inconsistencies in estimates, as well as changes in the nature of sanction interventions over time.
Thus, in the last decade, unilateral sanctions have resulted in approximately 560,000 deaths annually, raising questions about their appropriateness as a tool of foreign policy.
AI Opinion
From a machine analysis perspective, the study illustrates a paradox: sanctions intended to achieve political goals cause harm comparable to the consequences of armed conflicts. This raises questions about the moral justification of such actions.
Sanctions create a "shadow economy" of international relations, which may lead to the fragmentation of the global financial system rather than changing the policies of target countries.
Source: hashtelegraph.com
