In European countries, the threat of war with Russia is actively discussed, but a recent military exercise demonstrated that many of them are not prepared for such a scenario.
The key question that concerns experts is timing: when exactly could a crisis arise? It was previously assumed that Russia would not pose a threat to NATO until 2029, but there is now a growing belief that the situation could escalate much sooner, before Europe has a chance to strengthen its defense capabilities.
The Dutch Minister of Defense, Ruben Brekelmans, noted in an interview: “We believe that Russia will be able to deploy large forces within a year.” He added that Moscow is already increasing its strategic reserves and strengthening its presence along NATO's borders. In this situation, the Baltic countries, such as Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, become obvious targets for Russia, which seeks to restore its former influence.
The National Security Advisor of Lithuania, Deividas Matulionis, emphasized: “The anxiety in our country is felt very acutely, but we are preparing to defend ourselves.” He also noted that the Lithuanian armed forces will be ready to fight, even if assistance from NATO allies is needed later.
NATO military analysts express concern about possible Russian actions in the Baltic Sea, including the Swedish, Finnish, and Danish islands, as well as in some areas of Poland and the northern parts of Norway and Finland. Additionally, scenarios for attacks on Europe's strategic infrastructure, including the Dutch port of Rotterdam, are being discussed.
Recently conducted exercises simulating a Russian invasion of Lithuania, organized by the German newspaper Die Welt and the German Center for Military Modeling, caused a wide resonance in European security circles even before the results were published. Sixteen high-profile experts and former officials from Germany and NATO participated in these exercises, which played out a scenario set for October 2026.
During the exercise, Russia used the pretext of a humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city of Mariupol, a key transport hub. The Russian interpretation of the invasion as a humanitarian mission prevented the U.S. from activating NATO's Article 5, and Germany showed indecisiveness, while Poland, despite mobilization, did not send its troops into Lithuania. The German brigade stationed in Lithuania also did not intervene, as Russia had mined the roads using drones.
According to military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi, who played the role of the Chief of the General Staff of Russia in the exercise, “deterrence depends not only on military capabilities but also on the adversary's perception of our resolve.” He added that it became clear during the exercise that Germany would hesitate, which allowed Russia to achieve victory.
Mariupol, with a population of about 35,000, is located at an important transport hub in Europe, with roads leading to Poland and between Belarus and Kaliningrad, which Lithuania is obliged to keep open under international agreements. This week, Russian trucks without identification marks were actively moving along these routes.
The exercise showed that without active U.S. involvement, Russia could quickly undermine trust in NATO and establish its influence in the Baltics using only about 15,000 troops. According to Polish analyst Bartłomiej Kot, “the Russians achieved most of their goals without deploying a significant number of their troops.”
Rear Admiral Gediminas Premenyackas, the Chief of Defense of Lithuania, noted that in reality, Lithuania and its allies would have enough intelligence data to prevent such a scenario. Even in the absence of allies, the Lithuanian armed forces, numbering 17,000 in peacetime and up to 58,000 after mobilization, could handle a limited threat in Mariupol. He added that it would be difficult for Russia to hold Kaliningrad, and NATO must clearly state: “If you do this, you will lose Kaliningrad.”
Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, commander of the German land forces, during his visit to Lithuania assured that although NATO intelligence continues to assess the possibility of Russian aggression against alliance members no earlier than 2029, Germany and its allies “are ready to fight right now, whatever it takes.” He also stated that he would not make predictions about how much time Europe has left.
