According to Nurlan Zhumagulov, director of the Energy Monitor fund, there is currently a moratorium on price increases in the market, but its cancellation is not far off.
When to expect fuel price increases
The expert emphasizes that the price increase will occur gradually, and there is no anticipated fuel shortage in the country, as gasoline and diesel reserves are sufficient. The first changes in prices may occur by summer, driven by the need to adjust for tax burdens, particularly the VAT difference, which is about 4% — this is the minimum amount by which prices could rise in the short term.
What influences oil prices
Instability in the global market is increasing, and the price of Brent crude oil has already exceeded $110 per barrel. Experts believe that if logistics and supply issues arise, the price could approach $200 per barrel.
However, domestic fuel prices in Kazakhstan do not directly depend on global quotes, as part of the oil is supplied to the domestic market under regulated conditions.
Will there be a gasoline shortage?
According to specialists, there is no anticipated fuel shortage, as the capacities of Kazakhstan's oil refineries are sufficient to meet domestic demand. This means that the price increase is related not to shortages but to economic factors.
Long-term price growth may be due to market integration within the EAEU, as noted by economist Rahimbek Abdrakhmanov. He believes that fuel prices in Kazakhstan will gradually align with prices in neighboring countries, where gasoline is significantly more expensive.
With the current price of AI-92 gasoline at 239 tenge per liter, potential values with an increase would be:
— 406 tenge with a 70% increase
— 454 tenge with a 90% increase
Experts suggest that the market will gradually shift to a more free pricing model, and support for the population is planned to be targeted. This means that drivers should prepare for increased fuel expenses in the near future.
