Since 2021, the World Bank has been conducting a study titled "Listening to the Kyrgyz Republic," which involves regular telephone surveys of households. The data from the study reveals the paradox of the Kyrgyz economy: despite stable growth in macroeconomic indicators, citizens do not feel an increase in their well-being at the same pace.
The study covers the period from 2022 to the third quarter of 2025 and provides an opportunity to compare overall economic indicators with how people perceive their daily lives.
Several key conclusions were drawn during the analysis.
GDP Growth and Poverty Reduction: Numbers vs. Emotions
According to the study, from 2021 to 2024, GDP per capita increased by approximately 23%, while the poverty rate decreased from 29.8% to 25.7%, lifting around 264,000 citizens out of poverty.
These changes in the macroeconomy contributed to improved financial stability for households: by the third quarter of last year, about 90% of families were able to provide for their food and utility payments, and the overall financial stability index rose from 35% at the beginning of 2022 to 80% in 2025.
Inflation Trap: Declining Savings among Families
However, by 2025, the growth of real incomes nearly ceased. The study records their stagnation due to inflation and a sharp decline in the share of remittances—from 19% in 2022 to only 6% by the third quarter of 2025.
This negatively affected households' ability to save money: if a year ago 11% of families could save, in 2025 this figure dropped to 1%.
Thus, people do not always feel the economic upturn—current expenses consume all possible savings.
Price Pressure: Main Fears of Kyrgyz People
By the third quarter of last year, the level of food security reached 85%—a significant improvement compared to 2022 when many families faced food shortages.
However, the fear of rising prices has intensified again. The inflation perception index in 2025 returned to positive territory, indicating that people are once again feeling price pressure after a period of relative calm in 2023 and 2024.
The most alarming factors remain the rising prices of bread, flour, meat, and especially electricity tariffs, which reached a record level by mid-2025 over three years of observation.
Migration Decline: Increase in Optimism and Trust in Reforms
One of the most notable results of the study was that the desire to emigrate among respondents has nearly disappeared.
If at the beginning of 2022, 12% of households expressed an intention to leave, by mid-2025 this figure approached zero.
The reasons include:
- an increase in the positive assessment of economic conditions (93% of respondents rated the situation as good);
- an increase in optimism regarding reforms (up to 90% by the third quarter of last year);
- an improvement in the perception of job market opportunities (75% positive responses).
Factors Influencing the Sense of Well-Being
The study identifies several key factors that shape the emotional and material well-being of Kyrgyz people:
1. Loss of Food Security
This causes the most noticeable and prolonged decline in life satisfaction—about 8% without rapid recovery. If a family faces food shortages, this negative perception persists for a long time.
2. Transition to Subjective Poverty
If a family begins to consider itself "poor," it leads to a 5% decrease in life satisfaction, and this level remains below the initial one for two years.
3. Lack of Employment
Being employed is one of the most powerful factors for increasing life satisfaction. A year after employment, the level of satisfaction increases by 8-9%, and after two years—by nearly 17%.
4. Increase in Income
A 20% increase in income leads to a 10% increase in life satisfaction, a 40% increase leads to a 13% increase or more. The maximum effect is observed with an income increase of 60% or more.
Trust in Government as a Factor of Well-Being
An interesting finding of the study: growing trust in the government is directly related to an increase in citizens' life satisfaction.
The share of those who consider anti-corruption measures effective rose from 73% at the beginning of 2022 to 92% by the third quarter of 2025.
The level of perception of "open dialogue between the authorities and the population" increased from 61% to 81% over the same period.
This effect persists, indicating that communication and transparency for citizens are as important as income and employment.
Conclusions of the Study
The study demonstrates a dual reality:
- The economy of Kyrgyzstan shows dynamic growth, incomes are increasing, and poverty is decreasing;
- However, the feeling of financial vulnerability remains high, especially against the backdrop of stagnating real incomes and growing concerns about prices.
The main risks for households include job loss, rising prices, and fear of a decline in living standards. Key factors for resilience are employment, financial security, stable incomes, and trust in the reforms being implemented.
