Political scientist Bakyt Baketaev began his commentary with an ancient Chinese proverb: "When great dragons and tigers begin to dance, the wise crane observes from above." He noted that the interest of the United States in Central Asia is natural, but it is important for the countries of the region not to lose their historical memory and sense of proportion.
According to the expert, the summit raised concerns among analysts not due to the necessity of dialogue with America, but because of fears that the republics of the region might get too close to the Western partner too quickly, forgetting who supported them in difficult times.
Numbers as an Indicator of Reality
The economic situation demonstrates that Kazakhstan's trade turnover with the USA is about 4 billion dollars, while with China it exceeds 44 billion. In Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, this ratio is even more striking.
Baketaev noted that many investments from Russia made over decades show deep economic and cultural ties in Eurasia. "As Leo Tolstoy said: 'Patience and time are the two most powerful warriors.' These qualities should define our foreign policy," he added.
The Experience of "Kumtor"
The political scientist also drew attention to Kyrgyzstan's previous experience, where trust in foreign investors led to a loss of control over a strategic asset.
He recalled how an initial agreement with Canadian partners was made to distribute control 70% in favor of Kyrgyzstan, but the situation changed, and President Sadyr Japarov had to carry out the nationalization of "Kumtor" to restore justice. "Behind beautiful words about partnership often lie cold calculations," Baketaev noted.
China and Russia - Indispensable Neighbors
The political scientist emphasized that Central Asia should remember who supported the region in difficult times.
"In the 1990s, when Kyrgyzstan's economy was struggling, China provided assistance, and Russia was an important humanitarian partner. Millions of Kyrgyz worked in Russia, which helped their families survive. As the folk wisdom says: 'A close neighbor is closer than a distant relative.' The USA is far away, while China and Russia are our neighbors, with whom we share historical ties," the expert said.
Trump and Short-Term Friendships
Baketaev emphasized that US President Donald Trump is known for his decisiveness, but Central Asia is not a place for quick victories.
"True friendship is not created in one summit. Fyodor Dostoevsky said: 'True friendship is tested by time, not by applause.' If Washington wants to be our partner, it has a long way to go - it will take more than one year," he added.
Caution as a Sign of Wisdom
In Baketaev's opinion, the multi-vector policy of the region is not a weakness, but a sign of maturity and flexibility.
"Each new vector must take into account existing alliances - SCO, CIS, CSTO, EAEU. These are the laws of geopolitics: any new light refracts before reaching its goal. Confucius said that a wise person does not go against the wind but sets the sail at the right angle. The caution of our leaders is not fear, but a manifestation of maturity," he believes.
In conclusion, Baketaev emphasized that Central Asia is not a chessboard for great powers, but an independent player capable of choosing its allies.
"We remember who was there in difficult times. We are open to new partnerships, but not at the cost of old friendships. Nikolai Berdyaev wrote: 'He who does not value the past loses the future.' Let our new diplomatic steps be as flexible as water: when needed - ice, when needed - liquid, when needed - steam. The main thing is that our people do not freeze, do not drown, and do not evaporate in this cycle," Baketaev concluded.
