In a study covering data from 120 years (from 1901 to 2020), scientists presented the occurrence of drought as an interconnected event worldwide. If two distant locations experienced a simultaneous deficit of precipitation, they were classified as "synchronized." The main factor slowing the spread of drought turned out to be ocean surface temperature patterns, including El Niño (ENSO). These cycles create a kind of "patchwork quilt" of regional climate responses: while severe drought conditions are recorded in Australia or South Africa, other regions may experience an excess of moisture. The ocean, thus, plays the role of a kind of fuse, preventing the merging of local disasters into a single global tragedy.
According to technical analysis, in recent years, the precipitation deficit has contributed to about two-thirds of the overall intensity of droughts. The remaining part is associated with temperature factors: atmospheric warming leads to a significant increase in evaporation, further exacerbating soil moisture problems. Although the impact of heat is becoming increasingly noticeable in Europe and some regions of Asia, in major agricultural areas such as South America and Australia, the primary factor remains the lack of precipitation. Even with a moderate moisture deficit, the risk of corn or soybean crop losses can reach 40-50%.
The authors of the study emphasize that understanding the "tipping points" of drought can help create a more adaptive system of international trade. Since different regions of the planet do not experience drought simultaneously, surpluses of food from resilient areas can mitigate market shocks. This transforms climatology from a theoretical science into a tool for stabilizing the global market, preventing local shortages from escalating into global price crises.
