The military confrontation in the Middle East, which has been ongoing for five weeks, may lead to a significant deterioration of the socio-economic situation in Arab states. This conclusion was reached by the authors of a report from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), presented in the Jordanian capital, Amman.
According to UN data, UNDP experts indicate that the region could lose between 3.7 to 6 percent of its total GDP, which is equivalent to losses ranging from $120 to $194 billion. This amount exceeds the entire economic growth achieved by Arab countries in 2025. Additionally, the unemployment rate could increase by 4 percent, meaning a loss of about 3.6 million jobs.
About 4 million people could fall below the poverty line.
The authors of the study emphasize that even short-term conflicts can lead to serious and long-lasting socio-economic consequences.
The largest macroeconomic losses are expected in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, where the economy is heavily dependent on trade and the energy sector. In this subregion, GDP decline could reach 5.2-8.7 percent.
According to forecasts, the sharpest increase in poverty—up to 5 percent—is expected in the Eastern Mediterranean, where an additional 2.85-3.3 million people may lose their livelihoods. This will account for more than 75 percent of the total increase in poverty in the region.
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The least developed Arab countries will also feel the negative effects, considering their low economic resilience. In North Africa, the impact of the conflict is assessed as moderate.
UNDP also warned of a possible decline in the Human Development Index: a general decline of 0.2-0.4 percent is expected across the region, which corresponds to a setback of six months or even a year. In the Gulf states, the decline could be even more significant—up to two years of development.
