With the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, gold prices began to decline. In March, the price fell to $4,100. However, this trend turned out to be short-lived: gold quickly recovered, returning to a level of $4,400. These sharp fluctuations highlight investor anxiety and the instability of the current situation.
Factors Influencing Gold Prices
The gold rate is currently under pressure from numerous macroeconomic factors, the main one being the rising prices of hydrocarbons, which contribute to increasing global inflation expectations.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has also decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged, leading to increased yields on safe dollar assets. As a result, the dollar begins to attract investor capital, creating serious competition for gold in international markets.
Price Dynamics of Bars in March
Nevertheless, for long-term investors, gold remains an important tool for protecting savings. In Kyrgyzstan, this opportunity is represented by the gold bars offered by the National Bank.
The editorial team of 24.kg analyzed data from the National Bank of the KR to determine how the price of gold changed in March and what real profits its owners have made since the beginning of the year.
March 2026 turned out to be a month of high volatility. In the first half of the month, gold prices rose, reaching a peak on March 3, but by March 31, the market returned to the levels of the beginning of the year.
Thus, March 31 became a day of lows for most positions, where losses for each bar ranged from 5.66 to 9.97 percent.
Profitability of Bars Since the Beginning of 2026
The counting starts from January 12, 2026 — the first working day after the New Year holidays. Despite the decline in March, gold has shown positive dynamics in som equivalent for those who purchased it in January.
Most positions are still profitable, except for the largest bars, which showed losses. The most profitable were the 10-gram bars, which increased by 0.59 percent since the beginning of 2026.
Bars weighing 100 grams showed significant losses.
The reason for the negative returns on them was that the buyback price on March 31 was lower than the selling price in January due to a sharp correction in global prices.
Weekly Fluctuations in the Price of Gold Ounce
We also examined how the price of a troy ounce of gold changed weekly since the beginning of 2026. As of March 31, the price was almost equal to the level at the beginning of January.
Margin on Gold Bars of the National Bank of the KR
We also analyzed the difference between buying and selling prices (margin) on the gold bars of the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan.
Data as of 31.03.2026:
How to Achieve a 10% Profit?
We also calculated what the price should be for you to achieve a net profit of 10 percent from a specific bar. In other words, the buyback price of the National Bank of the KR for a specific bar should be at least 10 percent higher than the price at which you bought it.
Below is the calculation of the "target price" for each bar if you had purchased them at the rate on March 31, 2026.
In 2025, investors expected such returns on average from 140 to 180 days. At the beginning of 2026, this path was traversed at a record speed — in 52 days (to the peak on March 3).
If you plan to purchase gold, pay attention to September — October 2026 as the optimal time for profit. However, if geopolitical tensions increase or global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, begin to actively lower rates, this timeframe may shorten to 2–3 months.
Gold Price Forecasts
Investing in gold is a long-term strategy. A sharp drop in prices at the end of March may cause panic among newcomers, but for experienced investors, this is a classic opportunity for additional purchases. Given that the National Bank of the KR continues to actively support gold and foreign exchange reserves, there are no grounds for a long-term price decline.
- Basic Rule: Never invest money in gold that you may need in the next month. Gold requires patience and rewards those who are willing to wait at least one full business season. Experts also advise not to hold more than 10-15 percent of your assets in gold.
Analysts agree: in the short term, the market will remain unstable. Increased volatility and the risk of new serious declines will persist in the coming months.
However, looking ahead to the end of 2026, experts predict gold prices to rise to $5,200-5,500 per troy ounce. Global economic uncertainty will inevitably support the value of precious metals in the long term.
