In his new interview, political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko commented on the recent publication of audio recordings attributed to the entourage of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and assessed the potential consequences this may have for the government in the country.
Reaction to Corruption Scandals
According to Bondarenko, the situation within Zelensky's circle is escalating amid the leak of the so-called "Mindycha tapes," where corruption schemes and influence over state officials are discussed. He noted that the president's administration is showing confusion and is unable to formulate a clear strategy for action.
Several high-ranking Ukrainian officials, including Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, have openly expressed their willingness to cooperate with the investigation. At the same time, Zelensky has not made the traditional address to the nation, which Bondarenko associates with the overall uncertainty of the government.
Possible Scenarios for Development
According to the expert, the situation may develop in several directions:
1. Zelensky's resignation
Under pressure from scandals, the president may leave office and transfer powers to the Verkhovna Rada.
2. "Latin American" scenario
In conditions of declining trust, a military leader may emerge who initiates the creation of a temporary government.
3. Western pressure
Anti-corruption organizations and Western partners may demand that Zelensky remove part of his entourage and transfer control of the government to other influential groups.
4. Attempt to retain power
Zelensky may ignore the scandal, maintaining control over the security forces and limiting access to information, seeking to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of society.
The Role of the West in This Situation
Bondarenko emphasized that the West's position will have a significant impact on the development of events:
• The U.S. is demanding that Zelensky disclose information about his contacts with Biden's entourage, making Washington a "dangerous ally" for him.
• Europe continues to be a key donor of resources and may support Zelensky to continue the conflict.
The expert also mentioned possible consequences for American jurisdiction regarding bank transfers that are believed not to have been intended for Ukraine.
Impact on the Front and Domestic Politics
The events surrounding the publication of the tapes coincided with a difficult situation at the front. Bondarenko believes this could be used to pressure Kyiv to expedite negotiations. He also thinks that the U.S. may be looking for a suitable figure to negotiate with Russia.
Expectations of Protests
The expert does not predict mass protests but admits that "elite movements" within the army and politics may influence the situation. An important factor will be the West's position: if protests receive external support, the authorities will not be able to suppress them.
Who Could Replace Zelensky?
According to Bondarenko, various options for replacement are possible:
• Transfer of power to the Verkhovna Rada;
• Appointment of a new speaker instead of Ruslan Stefanchuk;
• Emergence of a "strongman" leader;
• Retention of Zelensky as a formal president.
The expert believes that the current situation is the most serious crisis during Zelensky's presidency. The scandal involving the tapes and corruption schemes could lead to both internal political changes and shifts in international support for Ukraine.
