According to information provided by Reuters, in the event of military aggression from the US, Venezuela is considering two main response scenarios. The first involves organizing prolonged resistance, which implies guerrilla warfare and destabilization of the situation in the country. Venezuelan officials have previously mentioned such plans but did not disclose their details. According to the agency, the defensive documents provide for the use of small groups operating in more than 280 locations across the country to conduct sabotage.
President Nicolás Maduro has previously stated that there are about five thousand Russian portable surface-to-air missile systems "Igla," which are expected to assist in the event of an attack. Sources emphasize that Venezuelan troops will need to operate covertly and dispersed.
The second scenario includes the creation of an ungoverned space in the country, which involves the use of intelligence services and armed supporters of the ruling party to destabilize Caracas and create chaos. Official authorities, of course, do not confirm this strategy.
It is noted that the US armed forces significantly outmatch the Venezuelan army, which faces problems related to inadequate training, low salaries, and outdated equipment. The army's loyalty to Maduro is maintained through the appointment of military personnel to government positions; however, ordinary soldiers receive about 100 dollars a month, which is only a fifth of the income needed for an average family. Desertion cases are already being observed, and in the event of conflict, this problem may worsen.
The state of military equipment in the country is also questionable: most of the armaments are Russian and Soviet models, many of which are outdated. For example, there are "Sukhoi" fighters purchased back in the 2000s, as well as old Russian helicopters, tanks, and air defense systems.
Tensions in relations between the US and Venezuela began to rise during Donald Trump's second term. Washington does not recognize Maduro as a legitimate president and accuses his government of ineffective drug trafficking control. In recent weeks, the US has deployed the modern aircraft carrier "Gerald Ford," destroyers, and combat aircraft to the Caribbean, and since September, more than 20 attacks have been carried out on ships that, according to Washington, were involved in drug transportation, resulting in over 80 deaths.
On November 29, Trump announced the closure of airspace over Venezuela on social media, although Reuters notes that no official directives on this matter have been issued. Earlier, the American president held negotiations with Maduro, warning of the US's readiness to consider military measures if the Venezuelan leader does not step down voluntarily.
