Climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency of droughts and floods. In the image: a woman in Madagascar collects rainwater.
The rise in global temperatures and the consequences of climate change threaten the lives, livelihoods, and economic stability of developing countries. In this context, the 2025 report on climate change adaptation measures titled "Fuel Running Out," prepared by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), highlights key aspects of financing.
The report, published ahead of the UN Climate Conference (COP-30), which will take place in November in Belém (Brazil), indicates that by 2035, the financing needs for adaptation in developing countries could exceed $310 billion per year. This amount is 12 times greater than the current levels of international public financing allocated for adaptation measures.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, commenting on the report's findings, noted: "The impact of climate change is intensifying, yet adaptation financing is not keeping pace. This leads to suffering among the most vulnerable populations, who face escalating threats such as rising sea levels and extraordinary weather events. Adaptation must be seen not as an expense but as a lifeline. Closing the financing gap is a step towards saving lives and building a safe world. We cannot afford to waste time."
Adaptation is not an expense; it is a means of salvation
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasizes that the consequences of climate change affect everyone: "People are facing wildfires, extreme heat, and other challenges. Without progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, these consequences will only worsen, causing significant economic damage. We need to increase adaptation financing from various sources to avoid increasing the debt burden on vulnerable countries. If we do not start investing in adaptation now, we will face rising costs in the future."
Funding Shortages
The sum of $310 billion is based on modeled costs. If we consider the extrapolated needs reflected in National Adaptation Plans, this figure could rise to $365 billion. These data are relevant as of 2023 and do not account for inflation.
In 2023, international public flows of financing for adaptation measures in developing countries amounted to $26 billion, down from $28 billion the previous year. Thus, the annual financing gap ranges from $284 to $339 billion, which is 12-14 times greater than current aid levels. Previously, UNEP estimated this gap to be between $194-366 billion.
If current trends do not change, the goal of doubling international public financing for adaptation from the 2019 level to $40 billion by 2025, as stated in the Glasgow Climate Pact, may prove unachievable.
Planning and Implementing Measures
To date, at least national strategies or plans for adaptation have been developed in 172 countries; only four countries have not yet begun this work. However, in 36 of the 172 countries, adaptation tools have not been updated for more than ten years, increasing the risk of ineffective responses to climate change.
According to the Biennial Transparency Reports submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement, more than 1,600 adaptation measures have been implemented, mainly in the areas of biodiversity, agriculture, and water resources. However, results and impacts of these measures are reported only in a few cases, making it difficult to assess their effectiveness.
Meanwhile, support for new projects under the Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund has increased to nearly $920 million in 2024, which is 86 percent higher than the average over the previous five years. However, this growth may be temporary due to impending financial constraints.
Increasing Public and Private Financing
At COP-29, a new climate financing goal was agreed upon: developed countries should allocate at least $300 billion per year to support developing countries by 2035. However, this amount is insufficient to close the gap for two reasons.
First, if inflation continues to rise, financing needs for developing countries could increase from $310-365 billion to $440-520 billion per year by 2035. Second, the $300 billion will be divided between mitigation and adaptation measures, meaning that only a portion of these funds will be directed towards adaptation.
The "Baku-Belém" roadmap, aimed at attracting $1.3 trillion by 2035, could play a key role, but it is important to avoid increasing the vulnerability of developing countries. Grants and concessional instruments are crucial to prevent rising debt, which could hinder investments in adaptation.
For the roadmap to work effectively, the international community must close the adaptation financing gap. This includes mitigating the effects of climate change, preventing maladaptation, and attracting new donors and investors. It is also necessary to integrate sustainability issues into decision-making processes.
While the private sector must increase its efforts, the realistic potential for private investment in adaptation is estimated at $50 billion per year. Currently, private investments amount to about $5 billion. To reach the target of $50 billion, targeted policy measures will be needed, and concessional public financing should be used to reduce risks and increase the volume of private investments.
