According to traders, the volumes of CPC Blend shipments this month are expected to be at 800-900 thousand barrels per day, which is 45% lower than the previously planned shipping volumes set in mid-December.
Out of 45 planned shipments, at least 21 have been canceled. This shortage of supply has already led to a price increase: Kazakh oil is trading at a premium for the first time in a year. The latest deals were recorded with a markup of $1.2 per barrel over the Dated Brent benchmark.
The reduction in shipments is linked to frequent disruptions at the terminal. In recent weeks, the loading of crude has repeatedly been halted due to adverse weather conditions, which, in turn, delayed the commissioning of the second offshore loading dock after maintenance. Additionally, at the end of November, another dock was damaged by drone attacks. Astana needs at least two offshore docks of the CPC to be operational to maintain export volumes.
According to sources, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's pipeline system is currently not accepting oil from producers, as the storage tanks are full.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium is responsible for about 80% of oil exports from Kazakhstan, including supplies from major companies such as Chevron, Exxon Mobil, and Shell. The Republic produces about 1.8 million barrels per day in total. Without the normal operation of the CPC, Kazakhstan can only export half of this volume through alternative routes, and prolonged downtime may necessitate a reduction in production at the fields.
