According to sources from Interfax, the Russian government is considering the possibility of reinstating a complete ban on gasoline exports. This discussion has arisen due to a sharp increase in fuel prices on the exchange, which was provoked by conflicts in the Middle East. Negotiations are underway regarding a ban that could last for at least a month, possibly even for an entire quarter. Similar measures were previously implemented in Russia in August 2022 and were only lifted on January 31, 2023. Currently, the restrictions apply only to companies not engaged in production.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak emphasized the need for urgent actions to ensure the domestic fuel market during a meeting on March 25, in light of the global energy crisis. He noted that prices for petroleum products and crack spreads have significantly increased, which, in turn, affects the situation in the country. Novak urged the government, the Ministry of Energy, and oil companies to develop effective mechanisms to meet the country's needs and control prices at gas stations, stating that this task is "complex" but requires immediate solutions.
Since the end of February this year, there has been a rise in exchange prices for fuel in Russia, linked to the start of a military operation by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. This conflict has affected key players in the oil market, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and has also led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supplies and 30% of liquefied natural gas pass. This situation has caused serious disruptions in supplies and a sharp increase in energy prices.
Since the beginning of spring, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange have increased by 14% and 22%, respectively. As of March 24, the average price for AI-92 and diesel for refineries in the European part of Russia was about 68,500 rubles and 67,500 rubles per ton.
Soon, the spring sowing campaign will begin in the country, and repairs at refineries are also scheduled, which may lead to a new rise in wholesale fuel prices. In the context of increased demand, producers in Russia will try to set prices at the level of export parity, raising them by 5,500 rubles per ton for gasoline and by 9,500 rubles per ton for diesel, as reported by market participants to Reuters.
