Have you noticed that the prices of fruits and vegetables are rising rapidly? Seasonal price fluctuations are not as noticeable as they used to be. In addition to logistics issues and inflation, there is a less obvious but significant reason — climate change. How exactly does this affect food prices? We decided to investigate by analyzing the situation from melting glaciers to store shelves.
Transition to Drip Irrigation: Necessity or Survival Tax?
How do we envision traditional irrigation fields? Water flowing from mountain glaciers rushes to the fields through canals and ditches.
Now imagine a different method of irrigation. It is a barely noticeable network of black pipes that slowly and gradually deliver water to the roots of plants. Almost without losses.
Between these two approaches lies a chasm caused by climate change. Previously, the ditch symbolized life and abundance; now, the drip system represents necessity and additional expenses. Farmers implementing new irrigation technologies incur extra costs, but ultimately, all consumers pay the price.
Farmers in Chui Region Seek Solutions to Water Issues
We head to the western part of the Chui region, where we see a contrast between old and new methods. In the village of Panfilov, there are two plots: one with raspberries using drip irrigation and another with an apple orchard irrigated in the traditional way.
Kumush-apa, the owner of the apple orchard, admits that problems with irrigation water are becoming more frequent. They are considering drilling a well.
Her son shares that during the irrigation period, people queue up in advance. Early in the morning, he heads to the upper canal to meet with the murab (water master) and clear the channel of debris and stones. While they irrigate the orchard, neighbors eagerly await their turn, and water shortages sometimes lead to conflicts.
“This winter was low in snow, and I am afraid there will not be enough water. We need to drill a well, which will cost 50-70 thousand soms. I cannot understand how in a country with abundant water resources we face shortages,” Kumush-apa shares.
The Water Paradox: Irrigation Costs Are Rising
Kyrgyzstan has impressive water resources: it is home to 1,923 lakes covering a total area of 6,836 square kilometers and over 3,500 rivers. The longest of these are the Naryn, Chu, and Chatkal.
However, Central Asian glaciers, which provide up to 80% of runoff, have shrunk by 30% over the past few decades. This is particularly relevant for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as climate change threatens irrigated agriculture.
According to experts, the average air temperature in Kyrgyzstan has increased by 1.6 degrees since the early 20th century, and over the past 46 years (1976-2021), the rate of increase has been 0.022 degrees per year.
By the middle of the 21st century (2050-2060), the average temperature in the country could rise by 4.5 degrees.
We analyzed data on irrigation and agricultural water supply expenditures. The area of irrigated land has changed little from 2018 to 2022: 1,024.7 thousand hectares in 2018 and 1,024.8 thousand hectares in 2023.
Table. Water Use for Irrigation and Agricultural Water Supply
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
4817
4920.7
4942
4986.9
5515.6
Here we see the paradox: the area of irrigated land remains virtually unchanged, but water costs are rising. In 2022, water consumption increased by 14.5% compared to 2018, while losses amounted to 2.4 billion cubic meters (27% of the total volume of withdrawn water). Water does not reach its destination, evaporating under the scorching sun.
According to Duishonkul Rysbaev, head of the sector for implementing water-saving technologies at the Water Resources Service, the state takes responsibility for major canals and reservoirs to bring them into order.
“Drip and sprinkler irrigation is being implemented on state fields. Also, private farms can install such systems if they unite into cooperatives with a common area of at least 10 hectares. Private farmers are required to return 20% of the profits from crop sales to the district water management offices,” he adds.
Small Farms and Their Chances of Surviving Water Shortages
The problem is that most agricultural enterprises in the country are small and medium-sized farms. The cost of installing drip irrigation varies depending on the size of the plot, water source, and other factors.
For a small plot (20-50 acres), prices start at 30 thousand soms. The smaller the farm, the higher the costs for equipment.
Large farms, although rare, have the opportunity to work with processors. For example, the "Eco Urzha" farm delivered 1,200 centners of tomatoes to a processing enterprise, allowing them to save time and resources on selling in markets. This format of cooperation benefits both parties.
Farmers with smaller harvest volumes face unfavorable purchase prices.
Mukhtar Chynaliyev, director of the Department of Processing Industry and Organic Agriculture, reports that only 7% of the harvest is processed in the republic, but a phased increase in this figure is planned. Increased competition among processors will allow farmers to sell their products at more favorable prices.
How Climate Change Affects the Supply Chain
Small and medium-sized enterprises engaged in agricultural product processing are sensitive to climate change. Rakhmat Abylgazieva, head of the "Samida" enterprise, notes that they are forced to purchase crops at prices set by farmers.
“Additional costs associated with the installation and use of new irrigation technologies are factored into the price,” she emphasizes.
Rakhmat Abylgazieva
At the "Tunuk" enterprise, which produces products based on fruits and dried fruits, they faced another side of the climate crisis. Ulan Nurgazy uulu, the manager, reports that in 2025, due to adverse weather conditions, the plum harvest decreased, forcing them to buy plums at twice the usual price.
Janara Algazhoeva, a partner of the "Tunuk" enterprise, supplies them with raw materials. Her business depends on the climate, as drought or heavy rains can negatively affect the harvest of medicinal herbs.
“Drip or sprinkler irrigation is a necessity dictated by the times. Farmers bear the costs of equipment and its installation, and they cannot operate at a loss,” she says.
The chain is complete: climate change forces farmers to increase costs and raise prices for their harvest. Processors and retail chains add their markups, and by purchasing products, we ultimately pay for the consequences of glacier melting and insufficient precipitation.
