Andrey Belov, an expert in logistics, summarized the outgoing year 2025 in his interview with VB.KG and presented key forecasts for 2026 based on data and analytical materials previously published in our publication.
Since February 2025, VB.KG has started a series of articles on logistics, beginning with the piece "Will Chinese Investments Be a Miracle for Kyrgyzstan's Economy?" As Belov noted, many predictions made at that time have already come true.
According to him, the main outcome of the year is the formation of a new logistics reality. "Gray channels for the delivery of goods from China to Western countries have lost their economic attractiveness for carriers due to the high risks of significant financial losses," he emphasized.
The logistics crisis that occurred in Kazakhstan in the autumn of 2025 became an important indicator pointing to systemic changes in the flow of Chinese goods, especially in the segment of road transport.
At the same time, in railway logistics, volumes and directions remained virtually unchanged, which indicates positive development of Kazakhstan's transit potential, unlike Kyrgyzstan, Belov noted.
The autumn transport crisis caused disruptions in supplies to the largest wholesale markets in Moscow, such as "Lyublino," "Sadovod," and "Southern Gates (19 km)," through which a significant portion of products from Kyrgyzstan's garment industry, which includes about 3,000 factories, is sold.
According to the expert, this turn of events allowed Kyrgyz producers to significantly increase their production and sales volumes.
However, he expressed concern about future prospects. The situation with traditional sales channels is becoming increasingly uncertain against the backdrop of the potential closure of Moscow markets.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin announced upcoming changes in trade policy on December 17 at an expanded meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense, as well as on December 19 during the live broadcast "Results of the Year - 2025."
Additionally, videos have appeared online showing closed trading points of the TYA "Moscow" on the first floors. The market is operating in a non-standard mode: wholesalers have started to leave for the New Year holidays earlier than usual, despite the fact that the pre-New Year period is traditionally important for trade.
"It is particularly indicative that many Chinese sellers have closed their points. This is extremely atypical for them. However, they have been forced to return home to establish new logistics chains, as the usual cargo routes through Kazakhstan have essentially ceased to function," Belov explained.
Since the end of November, Chinese transport companies engaged in cargo transportation through Kazakhstan have begun actively promoting an alternative "eastern route" for clients targeting Moscow markets.
"This scenario threatens the future of Kyrgyzstan. Traditional sales channels for the garment industry may cease to exist in the coming years, and entering the e-commerce market remains a complex and risky task for most producers, where any mistake can lead to bankruptcy," he added.
The expert believes that under current conditions, the only correct solution is to maximize the simplification of transit for Chinese goods through Kyrgyzstan to the EAEU and European countries.
"It is necessary to create large logistics centers in the republic capable of providing intermodal and multimodal transport at key points of the Silk Road," Belov concluded.
Such a solution, in his opinion, will allow Kyrgyz garment enterprises to work with the largest e-commerce platforms in the EAEU and other regions, shipping products to warehouses of marketplaces located directly in Kyrgyzstan.
He also noted that in the context of global instability, decisions regarding the scale and parameters of logistics infrastructure in the country may be made not only in Bishkek.
"Kyrgyzstan may have a choice of location for the facility, while capacity, technology, design, and construction will depend on investors," he added, reminding of the forecasts published in the VB.KG article from October 16.
Discussing prospects for 2026, Belov expects the most significant changes in Eurasian logistics from March to September.
"We will witness a complete transition to a digital format in all aspects of foreign economic activity and taxation. The road transport market in Kyrgyzstan will face difficulties, and by the end of 2026, at least 30% of transport companies may go out of business," the expert concluded.
At the end of the interview, he congratulated the readers of VB.KG on the upcoming New Year and wished that "daily routes to work, home, kindergarten, or school are always comfortable and safe."
