Minor Slowdown in Growth
According to preliminary data, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in January and February 2026 amounted to 264.1 billion soms, which is 8.8% higher compared to the same period in 2025.Choro Seiytov, the First Deputy Minister of Economy and Commerce, reported that the GDP growth rate for the current year is projected to be around 8.5-8.6%. An increase in production is expected in sectors such as construction, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and light industry.
He also noted that by 2030, Kyrgyzstan's GDP could exceed $30 billion. By the end of 2025, the gross domestic product was approximately 2 trillion soms, equivalent to about $22.5 billion. GDP per capita also rose from $2,500 in 2024 to $3,000.
Price Expectations
In January-February 2026, consumer prices and tariffs increased by 1.9% compared to December 2025, as reported by Bakytbek Shokenov, Deputy Chairman of the National Statistics Committee, in his comments.According to him, tariffs for services to the population rose by 3.6%, while prices for alcohol and tobacco products increased by 2.2%, and for food and non-alcoholic beverages by 2.1%. The smallest growth was recorded among non-food goods — 0.4%.
The largest price increases affected fresh vegetables, fruits, dairy products, eggs, sausages, and canned meat, as well as fish and sugar.
However, experts expect more significant price growth in the coming months, especially for fuel and vegetables. Political scientist Sheradil Baktygulov noted that the current economic difficulties may be temporary, but there is a risk that entrepreneurs will start to inflate prices, citing international conflicts.
“This could lead to speculative price increases for certain goods, and the lack of diversified supplies will only exacerbate the situation, as entrepreneurs will be forced to impose additional markups to cover their losses,” he added.
In response to a potential fuel shortage, Choro Seiytov assured that the authorities are taking measures to prevent a fuel deficit. Russia remains the main supplier for Kyrgyzstan, and the country has guarantees for fuel supplies despite the current international situation.
Seiytov also pointed out the establishment of price caps on diesel fuel for farmers and emphasized that the authorities will actively work to contain prices.
However, possible disruptions in the global fertilizer market could also affect the agricultural sector. According to the Financial Times, the situation in the Middle East has led to a halt in the production of urea, one of the most common fertilizers. As a result, over 1.1 million tons of fertilizers are stuck in the Persian Gulf.
Kyrgyzstan receives most of its nitrogen fertilizers from Russia, as well as from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. However, if the main suppliers decide to raise prices, this could affect the domestic market.
Growth in Imports
Kyrgyzstan's foreign trade turnover in January 2026 amounted to $1 billion, which is 2% higher than the same period last year.Trade with the member states of the EAEU reached $396.8 million (+11.3%). The largest share of trade was with Russia (68.6%) and Kazakhstan (29%).
