European countries are in a state of alarm as Trump shows no signs of backing down from his intentions regarding Greenland. He has repeatedly emphasized that this island is essential for America's security. If diplomatic methods fail, he believes that harsher measures will be taken.
Geopolitical Instability
The situation is causing fear and uncertainty among Europeans. At the beginning of 2026, they faced numerous problems, including events in Venezuela and Iran. Trump seems determined to address all issues based on American interests. His motto "America First" has become "America Exclusively," and other countries must adapt to this strategy. This particularly applies to Greenland. Trump stated, "If this leads to the end of NATO, then so be it."
On January 15, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz held a meeting with key ministers, including Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, to discuss this complex situation. However, the details of their negotiations remain confidential.
It is unclear why Trump has intensified pressure at this moment. There are already 200 American troops in Greenland, and under an agreement with Denmark made in 1951, the U.S. has the right to establish its bases with Copenhagen's consent. In the 1960s, up to 10,000 American soldiers were stationed on the island, and although only one large base remains now, it can be activated quickly if necessary.
Scenarios for Greenland
Denmark and Europe are experiencing deep concern and a sense of helplessness. Possible scenarios for the situation include:
Annexation, like in Crimea
The U.S. could increase its forces on the island without Denmark's consent and seize the capital, Nuuk.
The events of 2014 in Crimea come to mind: "little green men" without identification quickly occupied key positions. The Ukrainian army was unable to resist at that time, and likely the same will happen with a small contingent of Danish soldiers. It is hard to imagine that a few dozen soldiers from Europe could stand up to American forces.
As in 2014, a referendum may be organized. Trump has already hinted at the possibility of financial incentives for the Greenlandic population, which could cost him $5.7 billion, considering a population of 57,000.
Purchase of Greenland
More peaceful options, such as purchasing Greenland as real estate, are also being discussed among Trump's circle. The example of Alaska shows that this is possible, but who would be the seller? Denmark or the autonomous government of Greenland? How would a price be set? The consequences for the international geopolitical situation remain uncertain.
If America can act this way, what might China consider doing in other regions of the world?
Preserving NATO
Europeans who continue to believe in transatlantic relations are trying to convince Trump that all decisions can be coordinated through NATO. The U.S. could strengthen its presence and work together on the island's security without changing its status.
However, does this align with the new American strategy, which effectively views Europe as an opponent? Does it correspond with the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, which prohibits European interference in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere?
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted after the events in Venezuela: "This is a president of action. Honestly, I don't understand how some still haven't realized this. If he says it's serious, then it really is."
Geopolitical instability in 2026 continues to escalate, and its outcome remains unpredictable.
Author: Dirk Emmerich, correspondent for German TV channels n-tv & RTL, with many years of experience in Moscow and Washington, as well as in conflict zones such as Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan.
