In January 2026, a decline in the global food price index was recorded. This decrease has been ongoing for five consecutive months, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
According to FAO information, the main factors behind the price drop were the decline in prices for dairy products, sugar, and meat.
Cereals
The price index for cereals increased by 0.2%. This occurred despite a slight decrease in global prices for wheat and corn. The abundance of wheat stocks was able to offset weather risks arising in Russia and the United States for winter crops, as well as mitigate the impact of adverse conditions in Argentina and Brazil for corn and increase demand for ethanol in the United States. The price index for rice, in turn, rose by 1.8%.
Vegetable Oils
The price index for vegetable oils increased by 2.1%. Global palm oil prices rose due to seasonal production declines in Southeast Asia and stable import demand. Soybean oil prices increased due to reduced export supplies from South America and expectations of high demand for biofuels in the United States. Sunflower oil also became more expensive, which is linked to limited supply in the Black Sea region. At the same time, the cost of rapeseed oil decreased due to large import volumes into the European Union.
Meat Products
The price index for meat fell by 0.4%. The decline is attributed to low pork prices due to oversupply and weak demand. However, the cost of chicken meat increased, mainly due to rising prices in Brazil, where there is high export demand. Beef and lamb prices remained stable: increased supplies from Brazil to China offset the rapid filling of the duty-free quota in the United States.
Dairy Products
The price index for dairy products decreased by 5%. The largest price drops were observed for cheese and butter, which is related to sufficient supply volumes. At the same time, the cost of skimmed milk powder increased due to renewed demand from countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and some regions of Asia.
Sugar
Sugar prices fell by 1%. The FAO explains this by expectations of increased global supply in the current season due to a recovery in production in India, favorable forecasts for Thailand, and positive dynamics in Brazil.
Cereal Production Forecast
Additionally, the FAO presented an updated forecast for global cereal production. The total volume is expected to reach a record 3.023 billion tons.
The revision of the forecast is associated with higher-than-expected wheat yields in Argentina, Canada, and the EU, as well as the expansion of corn plantings and increased yields in China and the United States. Rice production is also expected to exceed previous levels, primarily in India, Bangladesh, Brazil, China, and Indonesia.
